中国出口实现功能升级了吗——纳入功能分工的新视角

Does China’s Export Achieve Functional Upgrading——A New Approach Incorporating Functional Specialization

由高速增长向高质量发展转型期,中国出口如何实现功能升级,是打造贸易强国的关键所在。本文基于世界投入产出数据库提供的1999—2014年全球投入产出表和最新编制开发的劳动力职业数据库,在全球投入产出模型框架下采用前向关联分解方法,测度了中国总体和行业从事管理、研发、市场和制造活动的出口国内增加值,据此对中国出口功能升级动态演变进行分析;并借助链式结构分解分析技术对中国出口功能升级背后的驱动因素作深入考察。结果显示,在1999—2014年期间,中国出口实现了一定的功能升级,其中市场实现了更大的绝对升级,而研发则实现了更快的相对升级,并且这种升级在劳动、资本和知识密集型行业间具有差异性。进一步分解结果显示,中国出口功能升级主要是由出口规模的扩张,尤其是对发展中经济体出口规模的扩张,以及国内中间投入结构变化所带来的;而国内部门分功能的增加值率下降抑制了中国出口功能升级。

Based on the 1999-2014 global input-output tables provided by the World Input-Output Database and the newly compiled Labor Occupations Database,using the forward linkage-based decomposition method under the global input-output accounting framework,this paper measured the domestic value added in export by business function,such as management,R&D,marketing,and fabrication,to examine the functional upgrading in China’s export at the aggregate and sectoral levels.In addition,the chaining structural decomposition analysis technique was adopted to conduct an in-depth investigation into the drivers behind the functional upgrading of China’s export.It finds that China’s export shows a trend of functional upgrading during 1999-2014,in which the market has achieved a larger absolute upgrading while R&D has achieved a faster relative upgrading.Moreover,this functional upgrading trend is different among labor-,capital-and knowledge-intensive sectors.The further decomposition results show that the functional upgrading of China’s export is mainly driven by the expansion of export scale,especially to developing economies,and the change of intra-national intermediate input structure.