人民币实际汇率变动对出口贸易的影响

Impact of RMB Real Exchange Rate Change on Industrial Export

本文通过建立理论模型分析人民币实际汇率变动与邻国效应对出口的影响,并将512种HS商品分类为技术密集型、资本密集型与劳动密集型产品,实证分析人民币实际汇率变动对出口的影响及其空间效应。研究结果发现:人民币实际汇率升值或贬值,会增加或减少我国对低收入国家技术密集型与资本密集型产品的出口、对中等收入国家资本密集型产品的出口,以及对高收入国家与"一带一路"沿线国家三类产品的出口;我国对亚洲地区技术密集型、劳动密集型产品的出口存在相互抑制的邻国贸易效应,对欧洲地区三类产品的出口呈现相互促进的空间协同效应;邻国汇率水平变化通过竞争效应与贸易优势作用,对不同类型产品出口产生不同影响;邻国汇率波动通过扩散效应,抑制中国对该国的出口。

This paper established models to analyze the impact of RMB real exchange rate changes and spatial effects on exports,and transformed 512 HS commodities into technology-intensive,capital-intensive and labor-intensive industrial products to empirically analyze the impact of RMB real exchange rate changes on exports and its spatial effect.The study finds that:with the appreciation(devaluation)of the RMB’s RER,China increases(decreases)exports of technology-intensive and capital-intensive products to low-income countries;increases(decreases)exports of capital-intensive products to middle-income countries;increases(decreases)exports of all the three categories of products to high-income countries and the Belt and Road countries.China’s export of technology-intensive and labor-intensive products to the Asian region show mutually inhibited effects;exports of the three types of products to the European region show reinforcing spatial synergistic effects.Changes in the exchange rate levels of neighboring countries have an impact on the export of different types of products through competition and pricing effects.Fluctuations in the exchange rates of neighboring countries inhibit China’s exports to target countries through diffusion effects.