中国与“一带一路”沿线国家产能合作的耦合效应研究

Analysis on the Coupling Effects of Production Capacity Cooperation on China and the Belt and Road Initiative:Based on Complementarity and Competitiveness in Trade and Investment

本文通过系统构建1995—2018年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家产能合作的贸易和投资相似度和结合度指数,并基于"一带一路"沿线国家的面板数据,考察中国与其产能互补竞争演进状况,验证产能贸易与投资的双向耦合关系,并通过双重差分法分析"一带一路"倡议对竞争与合作耦合效应的政策性影响。实证研究表明:中国与"一带一路"沿线国家产能贸易和产能投资存在双向耦合作用效应,即滞后期的"一带一路"产能贸易和投资显著促进当期的产能贸易和投资;产能贸易和产能投资互补竞争性在短期内耦合影响较大,长期内耦合作用较弱。异质性检验发现,沿线发展中国家存在竞争性和互补性耦合效应,沿线发达国家存在竞争性耦合效应,而且东亚及东盟国家呈现正向的竞争互补耦合效应,西亚及中亚国家呈现负向竞争和正向互补耦合效应,独联体及中东欧国家呈现正向的竞争耦合效应。另外,"一带一路"倡议对产能贸易和投资互补竞争具有显著的正向作用,且随着产能贸易和投资竞合联系加深,"一带一路"倡议的政策作用更大。

This paper constructed an export similarity index and trade intensity index to measure the cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).Based on the panel data of countries along the BRI,this paper elaborated the evolution of complementarity and competitiveness of production capacity cooperation between China and countries along the BRI,and further examined the two-way coupling effect between China and the countries.Adopting the DID approach,it analyzed the policy influences of the BRI on the complementarity and competitiveness effect.Empirical studies show that:(1)There is a two-way coupling effects(complementarity and competitiveness)between China and countries along the BRI,in terms of production capacity investment and trade,which is to say,the lagged BRI production capacity investment and trade can significantly boost the current production capacity investment and trade.(2)There is a stronger coupling effect between China and countries along the BRI in the short term,while in the long turn,the effect goes down.(3)Via heterogeneity test,it is found that there is a complementarity and competitiveness coupling effect between developing countries along the BRI.There is competitiveness coupling effect between developed countries along the BRI.There is a positive complementarity and competitiveness coupling effect in East Asia and ASEAN countries,while the complementarity and competitiveness coupling effect in East Asia and Central Asia is negative.Also,there is a positive effect between Commonwealth of Independent States.(4)BRI exerts a significantly positive influence on the complementarity and competitiveness coupling effects,and with the increasing complementarity and competitiveness,the BRI can display even greater policy influences.