外部冲击、信贷扩张与中国企业对外直接投资——基于2008年国际金融危机的研究启示

External Impact,Credit Expansion and Outward Direct Investment of Chinese Firms——A Research Implications Based on 2008 International Financial Crisis

本文以2008年国际金融危机爆发为外部冲击的典型事件,通过合并《中国工业企业数据库》和《境外投资企业(机构)名录》构建2004—2013年企业数据集,研究国际金融危机爆发前后信贷扩张对中国企业对外直接投资的差异化影响效应,结果显示:(1)信贷扩张能促进中国企业对外直接投资,国际金融危机爆发强化了这种投资促进效应,在考虑了内生性问题以及稳健性检验的情况下,信贷扩张的对外投资促进效应与国际金融危机的强化效应仍然稳定;(2)进一步地,针对不同投资动机、不同所有制以及不同来源地区企业的异质性检验结果显示信贷扩张的对外直接投资促进效应以及国际金融危机的强化效应存在明显差异性;(3)信贷扩张主要通过"生产率提升效应"和"投资固定成本降低效应"影响企业对外直接投资行为。本文的研究结论对于外部冲击下信贷扩张政策的精准实施以及推进中国企业对外投资稳定有序发展具有重要启示。

Based on the 2008 international financial crisis,this paper constructed a2004-2013 firm-level data set to study the different impact of credit expansion on Chinese firms’outward direct investment before and after the international financial crisis.The results show that credit expansion can promote outward direct investment of Chinese firms,and the outbreak of the international financial crisis has strengthened the promotion roles.After considering the endogenous issues and the test of robustness,the results remain stable.Furthermore,the heterogeneity test results for different investment motives,different ownership,and different source regions show that there are significant differences in the effect of credit expansion on outward direct investment promotion and the moderating effect of the international financial crisis.Finally,this research finds that the influencing mechanism of credit expansion on Chinese firms’outward direct investment is based on the"fixed cost reduction effect"and"productivity improvement effect".