中非产能合作效应研究——基于产能利用率的视角

The Effect of China-Africa Production Capacity Cooperation on Capacity Utilization

随着中非产能合作的推进,全面评估中非产能合作效应对于促进产能合作政策的完善以及中非全面合作关系的深化发展具有重要意义。本文利用制造业微观企业数据,采用基于倾向得分匹配的双重差分方法,从中国企业产能利用率视角评估了中非产能合作的成效。研究发现,中非产能合作起到了化解国内富余产能的重要作用,促进了企业产能利用率的提升,但这一效应主要来源于生产侧,对消费侧的影响尚不明显。进一步检验发现,中非产能合作对产能利用率的提升效应受到所有权性质、产能利用率水平及东道国制度环境等因素的影响,且仅具有短期持续性。作用机制检验发现,中非产能合作对产能利用率的提升效应主要通过要素产出效率渠道作用于生产侧,并未通过要素投入数量渠道发挥作用。本文研究表明,尽管中非产能合作取得了一定成效,但对参与企业和东道国具有较高要求,利用中非产能合作化解国内富余产能仍需采用循序渐进方式,并应充分挖掘从消费侧提升产能利用率的潜力。

With the development of China-Africa Production Capacity Cooperation,it becomes more and more important to evaluate the achievement of the Cooperation empirically for promoting adjustment of Production Capacity Cooperation Policy and deepening bilateral cooperation.This paper evaluates the achievement of China-Africa Production Capacity Cooperation from the view of capacity utilization firstly and empirically using firm data in manufacturing industry based on propensity score matching and difference in difference method.The result shows that firms participating in the Cooperation through outward foreign direct investment promote the improvement of their capacity utilization.This effect is mainly caused by capacity utilization improvement in the production side instead of consumption side.In addition,the effect of participating in the Cooperation is affected by firms’ownership,industries’average capacity utilization and host countries’institutional environment.But participating in the Cooperation through outward foreign direct investment only has a short-term effect on capacity utilization in production side.From the perspective of mechanism,firms participating in the Cooperation promote the improvement of their capacity utilization through improving input-output efficiency expressed by the development of technology and real output growth instead of volume of input expressed by fixed asset investment.Overall,China-Africa Production Capacity Cooperation has achieved initial effects.But the Cooperation should proceed in an orderly way and step by step since it has high requirement for the participating firms and host countries.What’s more,we should improve the potential of promoting capacity utilization from the consumption side.