美国降息与加征关税对中国经济影响研究

A Study on the Impact of US Interest Rate Cut and Tariff Hike on China’s Economy

本文结合2019年美联储在金融危机后首次降息以及中美贸易冲突不断升级的事实,运用一个包含名义价格黏性与抵押担保约束两类摩擦的两国DSGE模型,研究美国降息与加征关税对中国宏观经济的影响。通过数值模拟研究发现:美国降息主要源于需求的负面冲击;该冲击对中国经济产生不利的外溢效应,但整体影响并不显著;金融摩擦将放大这种影响,使中国实际GDP和投资分别下降0.33%与0.7%。相对而言,美国加征关税对中国经济的负面影响比降息政策更加明显。美国降息与加征关税两者叠加导致中国实际GDP和投资下降1.4%与2.6%。

Based on the fact that the Fed cut interest rates for the first time after the financial crisis in 2019 and the trade conflict between China and America has been escalating,this paper used a two-country DSGE model to further study the impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut policy and the US tariff hike on China’s macro-economy.By means of numerical simulation,the paper finds that the Fed’s rate cut policy is mainly due to the negative impact of demand,which has an adverse spillover effect on China’s economy.Financial friction will amplify this impact,resulting in a 0.33%and 0.7%drop in China’s real GDP and investment,respectively.Relatively speaking,the negative impact of the tariff hike on China’s economy is more significant than that of the interest rate cut policy.The combined impact of the two policies has led to a decline of 1.4%and 2.6%in China’s real GDP and investment respectively.The aggravation of trade disputes will further worsen the bilateral economy,and the time for economic recovery will be longer.