中国内陆型自贸区的贸易创造效应:扩大进口还是刺激出口

The Trade Creation Effect of China Inland Pilot Free Trade Zone:Expanding Imports or Increasing Exports

相较于东部沿海地区,在对外开放程度相对偏低的现实背景下,中国内陆型自贸区能否有效激发内陆地区的贸易创造效应?其扩大进口与刺激出口双重效应作用是否存在差异?本文通过2017年3月第三批获准设立自贸区中内陆型自贸区的设立为准自然实验,运用合成控制法对四川、重庆、湖北、河南和陕西五大内陆型自贸区的贸易创造效应展开探讨。研究结果表明:各内陆型自贸区总体贸易创造效应显著,但存在明显的政策效应异质性特征;相较于扩大进口贸易规模,内陆型自贸区更有利于通过刺激出口实现贸易创造;内陆型自贸区在外商直接投资和汇率水平的调节作用下,主要通过提升对外开放程度和改善对外贸易结构来发挥贸易创造效应。

Compared with the eastern coastal areas,under the background of relatively low degree of opening to the outside world,can China inland pilot free trade zone effectively stimulate its trade creation effect?And are there any differences in the double effects of expanding imports and increasing exports?By setting the approval of the third batch of inland free trade zones in March 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper adopted the synthetic control method to study the trade creation effects of five inland free trade zones in Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei,Henan,and Shanxi.The results show that there are significant trade creation effects of each inland free trade zone while there are obvious policy heterogeneity effects.It is easier for inland free trade zones to create trade by stimulating exports than by expanding imports.Under the negative adjustment effect of FDI and exchange rate,the inland free trade zones’trade creation effect is mainly through increasing the degree of openness and improving the structure of foreign trade.This indicates in the subsequent approval and promotion of free trade zones,on one hand,it’s necessary to focus on the characteristics of each region and play their institutional advantages;on the other hand,it is necessary to establish long-term friendly trade relationship with other countries and expand export with the free trade zone policy support,so as to consolidate China’s favorable trade balance position in foreign trade.