关税冲击、中间品贸易与货币国际化

Tariff Shocks,Intermediate Trade and Currency Internationalization

本文引入中间品贸易和关税冲击,研究出口品定价货币变动对经济波动和社会福利的影响。结果表明:货币国际化能提升本国出口品本币定价比例,增强汇率变动的支出转换效应,减弱由外国加征关税导致的本国出口品价格扭曲和一价定律偏离,进而减小本国经济波动和福利损失;相较于最终品,本国出口中间品本币定价比例提升能更显著地减小本国经济波动和福利损失。因此在关税冲击环境下,我国应坚持推进人民币国际化,并注重出口中间品人民币结算比例的提升。

This paper investigated how the varying invoicing currency affected the economic fluctuations and welfare with intermediate trade in the context of tariff shocks.The result shows that:Currency internationalization increases the proportion of home currency as invoicing currency,heightens the expenditure-switching role played by exchange rate changes,and reduces the distortions of home price and the deviation from"the law of one price"caused by foreign imposing extra tariffs,therefore weakens home economic fluctuations and welfare loss;the proportion of home currency as intermediate invoicing currency owns more prominent effects on reducing economic fluctuations and welfare loss,relative to the final one.Therefore,the government should promote RMB internationalization and increase the proportion of RMB as intermediate invoicing currency in the context of tariff shocks.