中国嵌入全球价值链的就业效应

Employment Effect of Chinese Enterprises Embedded Global Value Chain

传统关境统计法由于高估贸易利益进而导致企业出口引致的真实就业效应产生偏误。本文测算出企业嵌入全球价值链程度——出口国内增加值率(DVAR),从增加值贸易视角重新探讨中国企业出口的就业效应,并选取实际有效汇率做工具变量,解决可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现:与传统关境统计方法下的贸易总量相比,企业DVAR提升对就业规模的促进作用更大,对就业结构的负面影响更小,提高出口国内附加值比单纯扩张出口规模更为重要;出口到高收入国家的企业其DVAR对就业规模的提升最明显,对技术工人的需求相对更大,对就业结构的负面影响更小;出口最终品的企业其DVAR带来就业规模的提升最大,而出口中间品的企业其DVAR对就业结构的负面影响更小;随着产品差异化程度的增加,出口该类产品的企业DVAR对就业的拉动作用变大,同时对就业结构的负面影响变小。

Traditional customs statistics will lead to a deviated employment effect caused by firms’exports.This paper calculated the degree of firm participation in global value chain—domestic value-added rate(DVAR),and re-explored the employment effect of Chinese firms’exports.We find that:Compared with the total trade volume,the promotion of firmexport DVAR has a greater role in promoting the employment scale,and a smaller negative impact on employment structure,accordingly,the improvement of domestic value added is more important than simply expanding the scale of exports;The DVAR of the enterprises exporting to high-income countries has the most obvious effect on employment scale,relatively greater demand for skilled workers,and less negative impact on employment structure;The DVAR of the enterprises exporting final products has the largest increase in employment scale,while the DVAR of the enterprises exporting intermediate products has less negative impact on employment structure;With the increase of the degree of product differentiation,the pulling effect of DVAR on employment of enterprises exporting such products becomes greater,while the negative impact on employment structure becomes smaller.