碳达峰目标下考虑碳转移的中国电力行业省域碳配额分配研究

Provincial carbon quota allocation for China’s electric power industry considering carbon transfer under the carbon peaking target

为明确双碳目标下中国各省电力行业的碳排放额度以支撑省级电力规划的制定,文中以碳达峰为总量目标对电力行业开展自上而下的省域碳配额分配研究。在考虑电力流动的基础上构建基于熵权法-三阶段DEA与ZSG-DEA相结合的公平与效率兼顾的分配模型,并以2030年碳达峰为例研究电力行业碳配额分配结果。配额分配结果显示:1)人口、碳强度、火力发电量和累积碳排放量四个指标适合作为电力行业碳配额分配的衡量指标。2)三阶段DEA模型效率评价的结果显示考虑碳转移的电力行业碳配额分配方案不仅更具公平性而且分配效率更高。3)兼顾公平和效率原则分配的碳配额由东南部地区向西北部地区逐渐减少。

To clarify the carbon emission quota of China’s electric power industry in each province under the dual carbon target to support the formulation of provincial power plans,we conducted a top-down study on the allocation of provincial carbon quotas in the power industry with carbon peaking as the aggregate target.An equitable and efficient allocation model was constructed based on a combination of entropy method,three-stage DEA,and ZSG-DEA,taking into account the flow of electricity,to study the carbon quota allocation in the power industry with the carbon peak in 2030 as an example.The quota allocation results show that:1)Four indicators,namely,population,carbon intensity,thermal power generation and cumulative carbon emissions,are appropriate for measuring carbon quota allocation in the power industry.2)The results of the efficiency evaluation by the three-stage DEA model show that the carbon quota allocation scheme for the power industry considering carbon transfer is not only more equitable but also more efficient.3)The carbon quotas allocated with both equity and efficiency principles gradually decrease from the southeastern region to the northwestern region.