内蒙古“牧光互补”开发适宜性及其与区域能源需求的耦合评价

Evaluation on the coupling of suitability of grazing-photovoltaics development and the regional energy demand potential in Inner Mongolia

“牧光互补”是草原畜牧业与光伏产业复合发展的新模式。发展“牧光互补”模式,对于高效利用太阳能资源、实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文中综合利用气象数据、自然地理与经济社会数据,运用空间主成分分析方法,评估了内蒙古自治区“牧光互补”模式开发的适宜性;通过双变量局部空间自相关方法,对内蒙古电力需求与光伏发电潜力进行区域耦合分析。结果表明:1)内蒙古自治区“牧光互补”模式开发潜力巨大,开发适宜区共47.97万km^(2),约占全区面积的40.65%,集中分布在内蒙古中部与东部盟市。其中,“非常适宜区”面积为28.43万km^(2),“较适宜区”面积为10.28万km^(2),“一般适宜区”面积为9.26万km^(2)。2)内蒙古电力需求呈现“中部高,东西低”、“东部高,西部低”的特征。鄂尔多斯市东部、呼和浩特市与乌兰察布市南部、赤峰市与通辽市东部及呼伦贝尔市北部地区为高电力需求区,兴安盟与阿拉善盟两地为低电力需求区。3)内蒙古“牧光互补”模式开发适宜性与电力需求的区域耦合特征显著。高适宜性—高需求区约20.78万km^(2),高适宜性—低需求区约13.63万km^(2),低适宜性—高需求区约21.39万km^(2),低适宜性—低需求区约20.01万km^(2)。

Grazing-photovoltaics is a new mode of compound development of animal husbandry and photovoltaic industry,and the active development of grassland photovoltaics model is important for the efficient use of solar energy resources and realization of emission peak and carbon neutrality.Based on meteorological data,physical geographic data and social and economic data,using spatial principal component analysis,we assess the suitability of the grazing-photovoltaics development in Inner Mongolia.Bivariate local moran’I is used to analyze the coupling of electricity demand and PV power generation potential in Inner Mongolia.The results show that:1)The suitable area for development of grazing-photovoltaics mode in Inner Mongolia is 403,900km^(2),accounting for 34.14%of the total area of the region.Among them,the"most suitable"zone is 162,300km^(2),the"more suitable"zone is 166,800km^(2)and the"generally suitable"zone is 74,800km^(2).2)Demand for electricity in Inner Mongolia is characterized by"high in the middle region and low in the east and west"and"high in the east and low in the west".The eastern part of Erdos,the southern part of Hohhot and Ulanqab,the eastern part of Chifeng and Tongliao and the northern part of Hulunbeier are areas with high power demand,while Xing’an and Alashan are the areas with low power demand.3)The regional coupling of suitability and demand for the development of grazing-photovoltaics mode in Inner Mongolia is remarkable.The high suitability-high demand area is about 207,800km^(2),the high suitability-low demand area is about 136,300 km^(2),the low suitability-high demand area is about 213,900km^(2),and the low suitability-low demand area is about 200,100km^(2).