人力资本与脱贫地区农户生计韧性——基于门槛回归模型的检验

Human capital and livelihood resilience of farmers in poverty alleviated areas-A threshold regression model test

提升易返贫农户的抗风险能力是巩固脱贫成果、防止规模性返贫的重要抓手。文中以农户生计韧性作为识别易返贫农户的指标,利用内蒙古脱贫地区农户调研数据,对农户生计韧性进行测算,并通过门槛回归模型检验人力资本与农户生计韧性之间的非线性关系,研究发现:人力资本对农户生计韧性的影响存在明显的门槛效应。当人力资本低于门槛值时,人力资本正向影响农户生计韧性,社会资本负向影响农户生计韧性,但社会资本的负向影响会随着社会资本的升高而降低;当人力资本高于门槛值时,人力资本和社会资本均负向影响农户生计韧性。

Improving the anti-risk ability of vulnerable farmers is an important starting for consolidating poverty alleviation achievements and preventing large-scale poverty alleviation.In this paper,farmers’livelihood resilience is used as an indicator to identify vulnerable farmers.Using the survey data of farmers in poverty free areas in Inner Mongolia,we measure farmers’livelihood resilience,and test the nonlinear relationship between human capital and farmers’livelihood resilience through the threshold regression model.The study found that:there is an obvious threshold effect in impact of human capital on the farmers’livelihood resilience.When human capital is lower than the threshold value,human capital has a positive impact on farmers’livelihood resilience,while social capital has a negative impact on farmers’livelihood resilience,but the negative impact of social capital will decrease with the increase of social capital.When human capital is higher than the threshold value,human capital and social capital both negatively affect the livelihood resilience of farmers.