政府注意力能否引起环境库兹涅茨曲线的改变?——基于内蒙古自治区的分析

Has government’s attention changed the environmental Kuznets curve?——The case of Inner Mongolia

环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线刻画了环境污染和经济增长间关系的一般规律。内蒙古自治区作为国家资源大区和重要能源基地,是否符合这一规律?近年来政府高度关注环保,有没有改变曲线的形态?文中选取内蒙古1999-2020年工业三废排放量作为环境污染指标,分别与代表经济增长的同时期人均GDP进行环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)检验,并归一化处理工业三废数据得到环境污染系数,与经济增长系数进行EKC联合分析。结果显示:工业三废单项环境污染指标与经济增长的关系均未完全符合EKC假设,但使用环境污染系数进行的EKC联合分析却呈现显著的“倒U型”曲线形态,即环境污染随经济增长呈现先加剧后好转的状态。引入政府环境注意力作为调节变量进行实证检验,发现政府环境注意力的提升会使内蒙古EKC曲线拐点提前。表明内蒙古环境与经济发展渐趋协调,生态优先绿色发展政策见到了成效。

The"inverted U-shape"curve of environmental Kuznets depicts the general law in the relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth.As a national resource region and an important energy base,the government of Inner Mongolia has paid great attention to environmental protection in recent years.In this situation,does it conform to this rule?has it changed the shape of the curve?In this paper,the emission of three industrial wastes in Inner Mongolia from 1999 to 2020 are selected as the environmental pollution indicators,and the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)test on these three wastes are conducted,respectively,with the GDP per capita representing economic growth in the same period.The environmental pollution coefficient is obtained by normalizing the industrial three wastes data,and the EKC joint analysis is carried out with the economic growth coefficient.The results show that the relationship between the single environmental pollution indicator of industrial three wastes and economic growth does not fully conform to the EKC hypothesis.However,the EKC joint analysis using the environmental pollution coefficient shows a significant"inverted U-shaped"curve,which implies that the environmental pollution is firstly intensified and then improved with the economic growth.The government environmental attention is introduced as an adjusting variable to conduct empirical test,and it is found that the improvement of government’s environmental attention has advanced the inflection point of the EKC in Inner Mongolia.It shows that the environment and economic development in Inner Mongolia are gradually coordinated,and the policy of ecological priority and green development has achieved results.