基于灰色理论的内蒙古人口老龄化趋势预测及其影响因素研究

Prediction the trend of population aging in Inner Mongolia using grey theory

中国人口老龄化问题日益突出,老年人口数量在逐年上升。老年人口数量不断增加对经济发展、社会保障以及养老服务工作等均会产生重要影响。文中以内蒙古为研究区,运用GM(1,1)预测模型,探究内蒙古2021~2035年老年人口数量及其占比的趋势,再依托灰色关联分析与主成分分析方法,分析影响内蒙古老年人口数量及其占比的9个因素,找出影响内蒙古人口老龄化的主要影响因子。研究结果表明:未来十五年内蒙古65岁及以上老年人口数量及其占比将呈现明显递增态势,2035年65岁及以上老年人口将达到549.96万人,占比达到22.20%;人均GDP、出生率、死亡率、城镇化率、年末市镇人口、每万人拥有卫生技术人员数、每万人拥有医疗卫生机构床位数是影响内蒙古老年人口数量及其占比的重要因素;经济因素与人口结构因素是影响内蒙古人口老龄化的两个主成分。

The problem of population aging in China is becoming increasingly prominent,and the number of elderly people is increasing year by year.The increase of the elderly population will have an important impact on economic development,social security and elderly care services.In this paper,we use the GM(1,1)prediction model to explore the trend of the elderly population in Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2035,and then apply grey relational analysis and principal component analysis methods to analyze 9 the factors that impact the number and proportion of the elderly population in Inner Mongolia in order to find out the main factors affecting the population aging of Inner Mongolia.The research results show that the number and proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above in Inner Mongolia will increase significantly in the next 15 years,and at the end of the 2035,the elderly people will be 5.4996 million,accounting for 22.20%of the total population in Inner Mongolia.Per capita GDP,birth rate,mortality rate,urbanization rate,urban population the number of medical technicians per 10,000 people,and the number of beds in medical and health institutions per 10,000 people are important factors affecting the number and proportion of the elderly population in Inner Mongolia.Economic factors and demographic factors are the two main components that affect the aging of the population in Inner Mongolia.