1960-2020年华北地区玉米单产对气候变化的响应

Response of maize yield to climate change in North China during 1960-2020

采用一元线性回归、IDW、皮尔逊相关分析等方法对1960-2020年华北地区玉米生长季内的气候指数、玉米单产变化趋势,以及二者间的相关性特征进行分析,以期为保障农业生产稳定发展,促进粮食安全提供理论参考。结果表明:1)1960-2020年,各气候指数中生长度日、最高(低)气温呈上升趋势,日照时数和累积降水呈下降趋势,华北地区气候趋于暖干化。2)近61年来生长度日、最高(低)气温大范围上升,日照时数呈全域下降的特点,累积降水仅在局部地区(晋北、冀西北、豫东南)呈上升趋势。3)1960-2020年,华北地区玉米实际单产呈先持续上升、后下降到再缓慢上升的波动变化特征,气象单产波动下降,变幅大。4)玉米气象单产受气候因素影响波动较大,其增减主要与高温和降水的变化显著相关。

In order to provide theoretical reference for ensuring the stable development of agricultural production and promoting food security,the climate index,the change trend of maize yield per unit area and the correlation characteristics between them in the growing season of maize in North China from 1960 to 2020 were analyzed by linear regression,IDW and Pearson correlation analysis.The results show that:1)From 1960 to 2020,the growth days and the highest(lowest)temperature of each climate index showed an upward trend,the sunshine hours and cumulative precipitation showed a downward trend,and the climate in North China tended to be warm and dry.2)In the past 61 years,the growth days and the highest(lowest)temperature have risen in a wide range,and the sunshine hours have decreased globally.The cumulative precipitation has only increased in some areas(northern Shanxi,northwestern Hebei and southeastern Henan).3)From 1960 to 2020,the actual unit yield of maize in North China increased continuously at first,and then decreased to a slow rise.The fluctuation of meteorological unit yield decreased and the amplitude was large.4)The meteorological yield of maize fluctuated greatly as affected by climatic factors,and its increase or decrease were mainly related to the changes of high temperature and precipitation.