西北地区水资源、能源和粮食系统协同关系评估——基于复杂系统协同进化视角

Assessment on the synergy of water-energy-food system in the Northwest China-Based on the complex system co-evolution theory

基于复杂系统协同进化理论,提出区域水-能源-粮食复杂系统协同评估框架,从系统和变量维度对西北地区水资源、能源和粮食系统的协同关系进行评估。结果表明:1)水资源、能源和粮食系统的有序度和水-能源-粮食系统的整体协同度均呈现上升趋势,系统的适应性逐渐增强。2)水资源-能源关系以“偏利水资源系统”的弱协同为主,水资源-粮食关系以“偏利粮食系统”弱协同为主,能源-粮食关系主要分为“互利”强协同和“抑制”不协同。3)系统变量的关联关系以正向“协同”为主,表征用水情况的序参量是影响系统协同进化的核心变量。

Based on the complex systems theory,we developed a framework for assessment of the synergy of local water-energy-food complex system.The synergy of the water-energy-food nexus in Northwest China was evaluated from the system and variable dimensions.The results indicate that:1)The order degrees and overall synergy degrees of these sub-systems of water,energy,and food show an upward trend,it means that the adaptability of the local water-energy-food system is gradually enhanced.2)The coordination between the sub-systems is dominated by weak-synergy,while water-energy couple mainly benefits the sub-system of water,water-food couple mainly benefits the sub-system of food,while the energy-food relationship is mainly divided in to two types:mutually beneficial strong synergy,and inhibition and non-synergy.3)There are significant correlations among the order-parameters within the water-energy-food complex system,and the order-parameter water consumption in sub-system of water is the core variable for the co-evolution of the total system.