山西省春季地温的特征对崩塌滑坡的影响研究

Variation of spring ground temperature in Shanxi province and its relation to geological disasters in same period

文中利用山西省107个国家站站点1981—2018年春季逐日平均气温、地温资料,采用相关分析、M-K非参数检验等方法,研究了山西省春季各层地温的变化趋势以及地温与气温和春季崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的相关关系。结果表明:M-K突变分析得出:春季平均气温在1998年出现由冷转暖的突变,0cm地温在1999年发生突变,5cm地温突变点为2003年,10cm地温突变点为2001年,15cm和20cm突变点均为1997年。山西春季崩坍、滑坡发生频次从2005年开始呈高频增长趋势,其中2005-2009年发生频率呈显著增多趋势,2016-2018年发生频次减少。0cm地温与崩塌、滑坡频次呈显著正相关。0cm地温升高时,崩塌、滑坡有增多的迹象。通过小波能量谱分析春季崩塌滑坡地质灾害与0cm地温呈现出同位相显著正相关。选取历史上山西省春季出现崩塌滑坡地质灾害的个例分析得出,春季地质灾害发生前平均气温和0cm地温出现两种情况:第一类持续异常偏高或突然转为偏高,第二类前期偏高或异常偏高,临近转为偏低,由于0cm地温的变化特征几乎与平均气温的变化特征一致,所以可以利用平均气温的数据作为判别春季崩塌、滑坡地质灾害高易发区是否发生地质灾害的天气阈值。

Based on the daily average temperature and ground temperature data of 107 national stations in Shanxi province from 1981 to 2018,we studied the variation trend of ground temperature in spring in Shanxi province and the correlation between ground temperature and geological hazards in spring by using correlation analysis and M-K nonparametric test methods.The results show as follows.According to M-K mutation analysis,the spring mean temperature changed from cold to warm in 1998,0 cm ground temperature changed in 1999,5 cm ground temperature changed in 2003,10 cm ground temperature changed in 2001,15 cm and 20 cm ground temperature changed in 1997.The frequency of spring collapse and landslide in Shanxi province showed an increasing trend from 2005,the frequency of spring collapse and landslide increased significantly from 2005 to 2009,and decreased during 2016~2018.The ground temperature at 0 cm was significantly positively correlated with the frequency of collapse and landslide.When the ground temperature at 0 cm increased,there were more signs of collapse and landslide.According to the analysis of wavelet energy spectrum,there is a significant positive correlation between the geological disaster of collapse and landslide in spring and the ground temperature of 0 cm,and the geological disasters in spring lagged behind the change of the ground temperature of shallow layer.By a case study of geological disasters in spring in Shanxi province,it can be concluded that there are two situations of average temperature and 0 cm ground temperature before geological disasters in spring:The first is:continuous abnormal high temperature or suddenly turning to high temperature.The second is:high temperature or exceptionally high temperature in early period,and adjacently turning to a low temperature.Due to the change of 0 cm ground geothermal features is almost consistent with the change of average temperature characteristics,so the temperature data can be used as weather threshold to identify whether the spring geological disasters could occur.