天气变化视角下易腐农产品价格波动研究

Price fluctuation of perishable agricultural products from the perspective of weather change

文中通过11个省份批发市场的日均价格序列数据,基于易腐农产品自然损耗的视角,实证考察了天气变化对易腐农产品价格波动的影响情况。结果表明,在天气因素中温度的变化对易腐农产品价格波动的影响最大,尤其是当日的最高气温、温差的变化会明显加剧易腐农产品价格的波动幅度;且温度变化对易腐农产品价格的波动具有显著的地区差异。相比非主产区市场而言,主产区易腐农产品价格波动受其自身价格的变化以及最高气温、温差等天气因素的影响更大。后续可从加强冷链运输体系建设、设立生鲜冷链建设基金等方面加以应对。

Based on the daily average price series data of 11 provincial wholesale markets and the natural consumption of perishable agricultural products,we empirically investigated the impact of weather changes on the price fluctuation of perishable agricultural products.The results show that the change of temperature had the greatest impact on the price fluctuation of perishable agricultural products among weather factors,especially the maximum temperature and range of temperature significantly increased the fluctuation range of the price of perishable agricultural products,and the fluctuation of the price of perishable agricultural products showed significant regional differences.Compared with the non-main producing area market,the price fluctuation of perishable agricultural products in the main producing area was more affected by its own price changes and weather factors such as maximum temperature and range of temperature.Follow-up measures should be taken to strengthen the construction of cold chain transportation system and establish a fund for the construction of fresh cold chain.