中国非洲猪瘟疫情的时空演化特征及影响因素

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and causes of African swine fever in China

文中采用地理空间分析方法和地理探测器,对中国2018年8月-2019年4月的非洲猪瘟疫情的时空特征及其影响因素进行分析,结果表明:1)时间上,疫情流行可以分为五个阶段,其中2018年10月和2019年1月-2月为疫情高峰期;空间上,疫情高发区域主要分布于北方地区,总体发病率的空间分布形态呈现聚集性,其中,高发的热点区域主要分布于北方地区,低发冷点区域集中于南方地区2)疫情的时空变化受到自然气象因素和社会经济因素的共同影响。气象因素中风速和气压两因素影响作用最为显著。社会经济因素中,我国生猪养殖业空间格局决定了疫情总体分布格局,而生猪的空间流通模式则加速了疫情扩散和传播。

In this paper,the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of ASF in China from August 2018 to April 2019 were analyzed by using geospatial analysis and geodetector.The results show that:1)Time distribution of the epidemic could be divided into five stages,in which October 2018 and January-February 2019 were the peak periods of the epidemic.In spatial distribution,the epidemic areas were mainly distributed in the northern provinces,and the overall incidence of the epidemic presented a clustered spatial distribution pattern.The hot spots with high incidence mainly distributed in the northern provinces,while the cold spots with low incidencewere concentrated in the southern provinces.2)The temporal and spatial changes of epidemic were affected by both meteorological factors and socio-economic factors.Among the meteorological factors,wind speed and atmospheric pressure had the most significant influence.The pattern of pig breeding determines the spatial difference of the epidemic,while the pig’s circulation pattern accelerated the spread of the epidemic.