宁夏生态移民定居意愿和行为的地理要素影响研究

Effect of geographical factors on settlement willingness and behavior of eco-migrants in Ningxia

文中通过对宁夏22个县(市、区)43个乡(镇)69个生态移民村650份调查问卷,运用地理探测器(Geo Detector)和结构方程模型(SEM),构建整合的计划行为理论(TPB)模型,分析地理要素对生态移民定居意愿和行为的影响。结果显示:(1)发展资源(q=0.0975)、住房质量(q=0.0349)、地形地貌(q=0.0270)、医疗保障(q=0.0247)、气候类型(q=0.0153)、耕地配置(q=0.0143)对生态移民的定居意愿有显著影响。(2)地形地貌对生态移民的"感知定居有利性→定居态度"、"定居主观规范→定居态度"、"定居态度→定居意愿"、"定居意愿→定居行为"等关系的调节作用显著;(3)发展资源对"感知定居行为控制→定居意愿→定居行为"中介关系的调节效应显著;(4)耕地配置、气候类型、发展资源、地形地貌、医疗保障不同的生态移民定居意愿和行为的敏感程度差异显著。结论:地理要素是影响生态移民定居意愿和行为的重要因素,在新时代背景和发展需求升级的情势下,应合理配置地理要素,优化生态移民发展空间。

Based on 650 questionnaires from 69 eco-migrant villages in 43 towns of 22 counties in Ningxia,the structural equation model was constructed by using the integrated planning behavior theory(TPB)to analyze the effect of geographical factors on the settlement intention and behavior of eco-migrants by the Geo Detector and Structural Equation Modeling(SEM).The results show that:(1)development resources(q=0.0975),housing quality(q=0.0349),topography(q=0.0270),medical security(q=0.0247),climate type(q=0.0153),arable land allocation(q=0.0143)have significant effects on the settlement intention of eco-migrants.(2)Topography has significant moderating effects on the relationship between eco-migrants’"perceived settlement advantage→settlement attitude","settlement subjective norm→settlement attitude","settlement attitude→settlement intention","settlement intention→settlement behavior".(3)The moderating effect of development resources on the intermediary relationship of"perceived settlement behavior control→settlement intention→settlement behavior"is significant.(4)The sensitivities of eco-migrants with different arable land allocation,climate type,development resources,topography and medical security to settlement intention and behavior are significantly different.Conclusion:Geographical factor is a crucial variable affecting on the willingness and behavior of eco-migrants to settle down.In the context of the new era and the escalation of economic and social needs of eco-migrants,the constraints of geographical factors should be fully taken into account,and various measures should be taken to configure geographical resources rationally and optimize the development space of eco-migrants’villages.