禁牧政策、资本禀赋与农牧民继续从事牧业生产意愿研究

How do the suspending grazing policy and capital endowments affect farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing to engage in livestock production?

文中基于农牧交错区188份农牧民微观调查数据,采用有序Probit模型分析了禁牧政策与资本禀赋对农牧民继续从事牧业生产意愿的影响。研究结果表明:(1)禁牧政策对农牧民继续从事牧业生产的意愿具有双向影响,补助金额与弥补效果具有正向影响,而补助标准合理性具有负向影响。(2)劳动力占比、生产性财产、借贷能力、年可支配收入与非农牧收入均对农牧民继续从事牧业生产意愿具有正向影响,礼金支出具有负向影响,表明人力资本、物质资本与金融资本越丰富,农牧民继续从事牧业生产的概率越大,社会资本越丰富,农牧民继续从事牧业生产的概率越小。(3)文化资本对农牧民继续从事牧业生产意愿的影响不确定,具体表现为平均受教育年限具有负向影响,从业年限具有正向影响。

Based on 188 field survey data from farmers and herdsmen in agro-pastoral transition area,ordered Probit model was used to analyze how do suspending grazing policy and capital endowment affect farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing engaging in livestock production.The results showed that:Firstly,suspending grazing policy has a two-way influence on farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing engaging in livestock production.Policy income and compensation effect have positive effects on farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing engaging in livestock production,and the rationality of subsidy standard has a negative effect.Secondly,Labor ratio,productive property,lending capacity,annual disposable income and non-farming and animal husbandry income have positive effects on farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing engaging in livestock production,but gift spending has a negative effect.It means that the more abundant of human capital,physical capital and financial capital,the greater the probability of farmers and herdsmen continue engaging in livestock production.If the social capital is abundant,the probability of farmers and herdsmen continue engaging in livestock production is smaller.Thirdly,the influence of cultural capital on farmers and herdsmen’s willingness of continuing engaging in livestock production is uncertain,which shows that average education years has a negative impact,and the working years has a positive impact.