城市辖区合并的区域一体化效应——来自房地产微观数据和城市辖区经济数据的证据

The Regional Integration Effect of Municipal District Merges——Evidence from Real Estate Microdata and District Economic Data

城市辖区合并是优化城市功能布局的重大行政区划调整。城市辖区合并如何影响房地产市场和经济基本面的区域一体化,两者之间有怎样的联系机制,过去文献对此罕有涉及。本文构建了房地产市场和经济基本面相互联动的一般均衡模型,解释了城市辖区合并通过影响经济集聚和公共产品区域一体化,进而影响区域房地产市场一体化的机制。本文利用独特的真实二手房交易数据,以及上海市静安区和闸北区合并的准实验,通过双重差分和精确断点回归检验了区域房地产市场的一体化效应。两区合并后房地产市场短期内三个维度的区域一体化效果表现为:与非合并区域相比,新静安区整体房价上升了2.39%;较落后的原闸北区房价上升了4.98%且影响持续扩张,较发达的原静安区的房价上涨压力并未缓解;合并使两区之间的房价边界效应从26.34%下降到15.05%。本文也检验了两区合并对相关区域经济一体化的影响,这体现在合并提高了原闸北区公共服务水平,对原静安区公共服务产生了一定的稀释效应,但长期而言促进了整个合并区域的要素集聚和经济发展。辖区合并后相关区域房价的短期变动反映了市场对经济集聚和区域经济一体化长期变动的预期。本研究为地方政府稳定房价、优化行政区划设置和促进区域一体化提供了政策启示。

Municipal district merges are important changes in administrative divisions.How district mergers affect the regional integration of real estate markets and economic fundamentals is rarely addressed in the previous literature.This study constructs a general equilibrium model in which real estate markets and economic fundamentals are interlinked,and explains the mechanism by which the district mergers affect regional integration of real estate markets by influencing economic agglomeration and regional integration of public goods.Using unique data on real secondary housing transactions and a quasi-experiment on the merger of Jing’an and Zhabei districts in Shanghai,this paper tests the integration effect of regional real estate markets through difference-in-difference and sharp regressions discontinuity.The regional integration effects in the three dimensions of the real estate market in the short term after the merger of the two districts are following:the overall housing prices of the merged region increased by 2.39%after the merge;the merge increased housing prices by 4.98%in the less developed Zhabei,but the upward pressure on housing prices in the more developed Jing’an had not been alleviated;the boundary effect of housing prices decreases from 26.34%to 15.05%.This paper also explores the effect of district merges on regional integration,results show that the merge led to the change of housing prices by promoting residential amenities in Zhabei,agglomeration effect and economic growth.The changes in housing prices are the instant reaction of market long-term changes in public goods and economic agglomeration lead by district merge.This study provides policy implication for stabilizing housing prices,optimizing administrative divisions,and promoting regional integration.