双重价值链、经济不确定性与区域贸易竞争力——“一带一路”建设的视角

Dual Value Chain, Economic Uncertainty and Regional Trade Competitiveness——Perspective of the Construction of the Belt and Road

立足国内大循环,实现国内国际双循环相互促进是实现经济高质量发展的重要举措,如何通过"一带一路"建设重塑国内外分工体系,将单一东向开放延伸拓展到更多区域参与的优势互补的开放新格局,提升区域贸易竞争力亟待研究。本文从区域间分工出发,研究"一带一路"建设中双重价值链对区域贸易竞争力的外溢效应。通过编制区域嵌入国际的投入产出表,结合微观企业数据和海关数据库,测算中国各地区双重价值链嵌入度,验证区域间价值链溢出的梯度效应和"高低互济"价值链的溢出放大效应。进一步利用高维经济数据构建地区经济不确定性指数,分析"一带一路"建设带动的双重价值链对区域贸易竞争力的作用衰减边界。研究发现:在"一带一路"建设中,双重价值链对区域贸易竞争力具有显著的正向空间溢出作用,各区域间通过构建"高低互济"的国内分工体系,放大了双重价值链的溢出效应,随着区域间贸易竞争力位次差的增加,双重价值链的梯度溢出效应逐渐增强。此外,稳定的经济环境对双重价值链的贸易竞争力溢出具有显著正向调节作用,一定程度上释缓了贸易成本对价值链溢出效应的负向影响。这表明,构建国内价值链和全球价值链协调发展的双重价值链,积极参与"一带一路"建设,营造稳定的经济环境,对于重塑价值链分工新格局、提升中国区域贸易竞争力具有重要意义。

Based on the domestic cycle,the realization of the domestic and international dual cycle mutual promotion is an important way to achieve high-quality economic development.How to rebuild the domestic and foreign production through the construction of the Belt and Road,and expand the single eastward opening to new pattern of multi-regional participation,and enhance the regional trade competitiveness need to be studied.This paper analyzes the spillover effect of dual value chain on trading competitiveness in the perspective of the Belt and Road.By embedding the inter-regional input-output tables into the inter-country input-output tables and using the Chinese industrial enterprises database and custom data,this paper measures the degree of dual value chain in different regions,and verifies the gradient effect of dual value chain spillover and the amplification effect of"highlow"dual value chain.Further we use high-dimensional data to construct a regional economic uncertainty index to analyze the spillover boundary of the dual value chain of the Belt and Road.It is found that in the construction of the Belt and Road,the dual value chain has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on regional trade competitiveness.The construction of a"high-low"domestic division between regions has amplified the spillover of the dual value chain.With the increase of inter-regional trade competitiveness,the gradient spillover effect of the dual value chain has gradually increased.In addition,a stable economic environment has a significant positive regulatory effect on the trade competitiveness spillover of the dual value chain,and to a certain extent alleviates the negative impact of trade costs on the spillover effect of the value chain.This shows that building a dual value chain with the coordinated development of national value chains and global value chains,actively participating in the Belt and Road construction,and creating a stable economic environment are of great significance to reshaping the new pattern of value chain production and enhancing China’s regional trade competitiveness.