重大风险预期、企业投资与对冲机制

Major Risk Expectation, Enterprise Investment and Hedging Mechanisms

中共中央统战部等5部门最新一轮全国范围内私营企业抽样调查中企业家对各类风险预期的数据真实反映了个体的主观判断。本文用该数据实证检验了重大风险预期对企业投资的影响。研究表明:企业家的重大风险预期上升不仅会对企业投资规模产生显著抑制效应,而且会恶化企业投资结构,对研发投资的抑制效应最强,对扩张性投资抑制效应次之,而对非实体投资抑制效应最弱。相较于重大经济风险预期,自然灾害、公共卫生、社会矛盾等重大社会风险预期对企业投资的负面冲击更大。对冲机制研究表明,政府民生保障、企业危机处理能力和企业家管理能力可以通过改善企业对风险发生及其冲击影响的预期来降低重大风险预期对企业投资的抑制效应,减轻对研发投资的负面冲击,有助于抑制企业投资结构恶化,相比而言,对重大社会风险抑制效应的对冲作用更大。随着全球重大社会风险凸显,亟需重视重大社会风险防范。本文不但对提前了解企业重大风险预期并进行积极预期干预以稳定企业投资有重要的事前预警作用,而且能为重大社会风险发生后的预期修正和对冲其抑制企业投资的事后修复工作提供重要的政策启示。

The latest survey data of nationwide private enterprises(2018)conducted by five Departments including the CPC Central Committee has various kinds of data about entrepreneurs’risk expectations,which can truly reflect individuals’subjective judgments.This paper uses the survey data to empirically test the impact of major risk expectation on enterprise investment.We find that high risk expectations of entrepreneurs not only have a major inhibitory effect on the scale of enterprise’s investment,but also deteriorate enterprise’s investment structure,with the strongest inhibitory effect on R&D investment,followed by expansionary investment,and the weakest inhibitory effect on non-entity investment.Compared with major economic risk expectations,major expectations of social risks such as natural disasters,public health,and social conflicts are expected to have a greater negative impact on enterprise investment.The hedging mechanism test shows that the government’s livelihood guarantee,the enterprise’s crisis management ability and the entrepreneur’s management ability can reduce the inhibiting effect of the major risk expectation on the enterprise investment by improving the entrepreneurs’expectation on the occurrence probability and impact of the risk,which can especially alleviate the negative impact on R&D investment,and help to inhibit the deterioration of enterprise’s investment structure;In comparison,the hedging effect on the major social risk suppression effect is greater.Thus,as the global major social risks tend to be serious,it is urgent to pay attention to the prevention of major social risks.This study not only plays an important role of early warning in understanding the major risk expectation of enterprises in advance and then carrying out active anticipatory intervention to stabilize the investment of enterprises,but also provides important policy support for the revision of expectations after the occurrence of major social risks and the post-repair work of reducing the inhibitory effect on enterprises investment.