居民杠杆与企业债务风险

Household Leverage and Corporate Default Risk

中国正面临经济增速放缓与杠杆率高企的双重压力,为实现稳增长与稳杠杆间的平衡,在结构性去杠杆中各部门杠杆有升有降,居民部门加杠杆能否为企业去杠杆腾挪出空间,进而降低企业的债务风险呢?本文利用2010—2018年中国沪深两市非金融企业的面板数据,结合宏观层面的居民杠杆率,对"居民杠杆—企业债务风险"间的关系和影响渠道进行了系统研究。结果显示:居民部门加杠杆不仅不能为企业去杠杆创造更有利的宏观经济环境,反而会通过企业债务期限变短、偿债能力减弱、金融化趋势增强、"僵尸化"程度加深等渠道机制致使企业的债务风险恶化。而且,居民部门加杠杆对企业债务风险的影响在不同的企业经营模式下呈现显著的异质性,在直接融资占比高的企业、融资约束低的企业、民营企业和高新技术企业中,居民部门加杠杆对企业债务风险的增加呈现出更为强烈的正向驱动效应。

China is facing dual pressures from slowing economic growth and high leverage ratio.In order to achieve a balance between stable growth and stable leverage,the leverage of various sectors in the structural deleveraging process will rise as well as fall.Will the increasing leverage of the household sector make room for the deleveraging of enterprises and thus reduce the debt risk of enterprises?Based on the panel data of non-financial enterprises in China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2018 and combined with the household leverage ratio at the macro level,this paper systematically studies the relationship between"household leverage and corporate debt risk"and its influence channels.The results show that the increasing leverage of the household sector cannot create a more favorable macroeconomic environment for enterprise deleveraging,but will worsen the debt risk of enterprises through the channel mechanism of shortening the maturity of enterprise debt,weakening the solvency,strengthening the financialization trend,and deepening the degree of"zombification".Residents add leverage effect on corporate debt risk in different enterprise management mode presents significant heterogeneity,high proportion of direct financing of enterprises,low financing constraints enterprises,private enterprises and high-tech enterprises,the resident department with the increase of leveraged present a stronger positive effect on the increasing of debt risk of the enterprise.