国际贸易依赖网络的演化及内生机制研究

Research on the Evolution and Endogenous Mechanism of International Trade Dependence Network

两国之间的贸易依赖不仅仅取决于双方的贸易关系,还应考虑贸易网络中的"第三方效应"。对此,本文运用国家贸易依赖新测量构建起国际贸易依赖网络,对其结构特征展开分析和可视化,进而基于网络理论推断影响其网络演化的内生机制,并利用时间指数随机图模型进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)随着贸易依赖关系可替代性的增强,各经济体之间的贸易依赖程度表现出下降趋势。(2)国际贸易依赖网络整体上呈现"中心—边缘"的典型结构特征,中国的国际地位日益凸显,中心度排名由第七跃居第一,在贸易依赖网络中的位置由边缘向中心转移,取代日本,与美国并驾齐驱。此外,"中—美"双子星领导的"亚太贸易圈"与德国领导的"欧洲贸易圈"成为当前国际贸易依赖网络中最重要的两大社群。(3)国际贸易依赖网络的形成和演化受内生机制,如互惠效应、偏好依附效应、连通效应、传递闭合效应和时间依赖效应等影响,路径依赖特征明显,忽略内生机制会导致实证结果明显存在偏差。本文的研究为加快培育国际经济合作和竞争新优势提供了基于系统依赖视角的新思路,也为国际贸易研究开拓了新场域。

The trade dependence between two countries does not only depend on the trade relationship between the two parties,but also on"the third party effect"in the trade network.In regard of this,this paper uses new measurement of national trade dependence to build international trade dependence network,analyzes and visualizes its structural characteristics.Based on network theory,this paper infers the endogenous mechanism that affects network evolution and uses temporal exponential random graph model to conduct empirical test.Research results show that:(1)With the increasing substitutability of trade dependence,the degree of trade dependence among economies shows a downward trend.(2)On the whole,international trade dependence network structure presents a typical"core-periphery"characteristic.China’s international status is increasingly prominent with its centrality rising from seventh to first.And China has transfered from the periphery to core in trade dependence network,replacing Japan and keeping pace with the United States.In addition,"Asia-Pacific trade circle"led by the"China-U.S."twin star and"European trade circle"led by Germany have become the two most important communities in international trade dependence network.(3)The formation and evolution of trade dependence network is affected by endogenous mechanism,such as reciprocity effect,preferential attachment effect,connectivity effect,transitive closure effect and time dependence effect.And path dependence is obvious,so ignoring endogenous mechanism will lead to obvious deviation of empirical results.This paper provides new ideas for accelerating the cultivation of international economic cooperation and new competitive advantages based on system dependence perspective,and opens a new field of international trade research.