中国扩大进口战略的经济效应

The Economic Impact of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

2018年以来,中国先后出台了一系列扩大进口的政策措施,并确立了主动扩大进口的战略。为了准确量化评估扩大进口战略措施的经济效应,本文构建了一个大型数值一般均衡模型系统,根据研究主题的需要扩展了理论建模,并采用量化模拟的方法定量分析了中国进口关税下降、非关税壁垒下降,以及关税和非关税壁垒同时下降对中国和其他经济体的经济影响。模拟结果发现:(1)整体上中国扩大进口战略既"利己"也"利他",对于中国和世界就业的增加、社会福利的提高、贸易的增长都有益。但比较而言,"利他"效应大于"利己"效应,更多地为世界经济的增长贡献了力量。(2)扩大进口战略能够有效地促进中国的贸易平衡,并且非关税壁垒下降带动的贸易平衡效应更加显著。(3)扩大进口在对中国的"利己"效应上,非关税措施显著优于关税措施。政策启示上,主动扩大进口战略在关税和非关税措施"双管齐下"的同时,要更多使用降低非关税壁垒的措施;另外,扩大进口战略要谨防对中国经济增长的不利影响。

China has successively issued a series of policies and measures to expand imports from 2018,and has established an import expansion strategy.In order to accurately quantify and evaluate the economic impacts of China’s import expansion strategy measures,the paper constructs a large numerical general equilibrium model system,expands the theoretical modeling according to the needs of the research,and uses the"counterfactual"simulation method to quantitatively analyze the effects of import tariffs decline,non-tariff barriers decline and the simultaneous tariff and non-tariff barriers decline on China and other economies.The simulation results show that:First,overall effects of China’s import expansion strategy are both"self-interested"and"altruistic",which is beneficial to the manufacturing employment,improvement of social welfare and trade growth of China and the world.Comparatively,the"altruistic"effect is larger than the"self-interest"effect.Second,import expansion strategy can effectively reduce China’s trade imbalance,and comparatively non-tariff barriers can reduce more of trade imbalance.Third,if we take account of import expansion effects in China’s"self-interest"side,non-tariff measures are significantly better than tariff measures.In terms of policy implications,import expansion strategy should pay more attention to non-tariff barriers reduction while both tariff and non-tariff measures are implemented.In addition,the import expansion strategy should guard against the decline in economic growth of China.