中国南北平衡发展差距研究——基于“中国平衡发展指数”的综合分析

Research on Gap of Balanced Development between the North and the South of China——Analysis Based on “China Balanced Development Index”

近年来中国区域发展出现新情况、新问题,南北方地区差距日益成为新的关注点。本文在充分理解区域平衡发展内涵的基础上,从经济、社会、生态、民生四个维度出发,构建包括36个基础指标的平衡发展指数指标体系,结合极差标准化法测算反映南北方地区发展充分性的发展指数,通过基尼系数法测算揭示南北区域内部不平衡性的地区不平衡系数,进而确定衡量南北方地区平衡发展状态的平衡发展指数,并运用2011—2018年31个省份数据予以测算。研究表明,党的十八大以来,南北平衡发展水平显著提升,但南北总体差距逐步凸显。南方地区在经济、社会、生态、民生领域均存在显著优势。具体地,北方地区新旧动能转换艰难、创新驱动不足、人力资本下行趋势明显是导致南北经济领域差距逐年扩大的主要原因;公共文化资源配置不均和养老保险失衡是导致南北社会领域差距加速扩大的主要原因;南北空气、水和土壤质量差距悬殊掣肘生态领域的平衡发展,导致差距位于高位;收入水平差距和住房支付压力是导致南方地区民生领域平衡发展水平实现反超的主要原因。

New circumstances and problems have emerged in the regional development of China,and the gap between the North and the South has increasingly become a new concern.Based on the adequate understanding of the connotation of balanced development of the region,this paper builds a balanced development index of system including 36 basic indexes from the four dimensions of economy,society,ecology and people’s livelihood;measures and calculates the development index reflecting development adequacy of the North and the South by combining with the maximum difference normalization method,and the regional unbalance factor revealing the internal imbalance of the North and the South regions by the method of Gini coefficient;and then determines the balanced development index measuring balanced development status of the North and the South,and uses the data of 31 provinces(districts and cities)from 2011 to 2018 for calculation.The research shows that the balanced development level of the North and the South has been significantly improved since the 18 th National Congress of the CPC,but the overall gap between the North and the South has become prominent gradually.The South region boasts remarkable advantages in the fields of economy,society,ecology and people’s livelihood.Specifically,the primary causes leading to the expansion of the gap between the North and the South in the field of economy year by year are the hard transformation of new and old energy,insufficient innovation drive,and the obvious downward trend of human capital in the North region;the primary causes leading to the accelerated expansion of the gap between the North and the South in the field of society are mismatch of public culture services and unbalanced endowment insurance;the wide North-South gap in air,water and soil qualities constrains the balanced development in the field of ecology,causing the differences to stay in a high range;the primary causes leading to the surpass of the balanced development level in the field of people’s livelihood in the South region are the income gap and the house purchase pressure.