发展中国家债务风险上升对“一带一路”建设的影响分析:风险、机遇与前景

Impact of Developing Countries’ Rising Debt Risks on the BRI——The Risks, Opportunities and Prospects

在新冠肺炎疫情、俄乌冲突和全球货币紧缩等多重因素影响下,“一带一路”沿线发展中国家的债务风险不断累积,债务脆弱性更加凸显。债务风险诱发经济风险,导致政治动荡和社会失序,更加恶化沿线发展中国家的疫后复苏前景,对“一带一路”资金安全、项目可持续性、人员安全、国际舆论环境等方面构成现实挑战。同时,沿线国家对疫后复苏的需求更加急迫,对中国减债缓债、投资贸易的期待增加,为中国建立并完善“一带一路”债务治理机制,更好推动“一带一路”在新形势下实现更高质量发展带来新机遇。

Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the global monetary tightening, the debt risks of developing countries along the Belt and Road have been accumulating, and debt vulnerability has become more prominent. Debt risks may induce economic risks, which can lead to political turmoil and social disorder, further worsening the prospects for post-pandemic recovery in developing countries along the BR routes, and posing real challenges to the financial security, project sustainability, personnel safety, and international public opinion environment of the BRI. At the same time, BR countries have more urgent needs for post-pandemic recovery, with growing expectations for China’s debt relief, investment and trade. This will bring new opportunities for China to establish and improve a BRI debt governance mechanism and better promote the BRI to achieve higher quality development.