黄河含沙量变化过程预报方法研究

Study on Prediction Method of Sediment Content Process in Yellow River

含沙量预报能够为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供技术支持与决策信息。本研究对现有的含沙量预报方法进行总结分析后发现,系统响应函数模型的预报精度较高且易于运行,水沙动力学模型的水沙运动机理性较强。通过结合水文和水力学方法,在不同水沙运动机理条件下构建了基于不平衡输沙原理、马斯京根演算、多来多排理论的3种系统响应函数模型。在黄河潼关站的应用结果表明,系统响应函数模型的物理运动机制越高,预报精度也越高,不平衡输沙原理系统响应函数模型可以较好地描绘汇流区的水沙输移特征,预报效果最优。

【Background】The ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River are inseparable from the study of sediment concentration prediction.Due to the influence of many factors,its complexity makes the sediment concentration process difficult to predict.【Objective】The study of sediment concentration prediction methods can provide technical support and decision-making information for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.【Method】By analyzing the existing sediment concentration forecasting methods,it is found that the system response function model has high forecasting accuracy and is easy to operate,and the water and sediment movement mechanism of the water and sediment dynamic model is clearly visible.【Result】By combining hydrology and hydraulics methods,three system response function models based on unbalanced sediment transport principle,Muskingum calculus and many-to-many row theory were constructed under different water and sediment movement mechanism conditions.【Conclusion】The application of the system response function model in Tongguan Station of the Yellow River shows that the more the physical motion mechanism of the system response function model is reflected,the higher the prediction accuracy is.The system response function model based on the principle of unbalanced sediment transport can better describe the characteristics of water and sediment transport in the confluence area,and the prediction effect is better than the other two models,which can be applied to the actual prediction work of Tongguan Station.