网络舆论是如何形塑公共政策的?一个“两阶段多源流”理论框架——以顺风车安全管理政策为例

How Do Online Public Opinions Shape Policy Agenda Setting? A "Two-Stage Multiple Streams" Framework——Based on a Case Study of Comprehensive Safety Inspections Policy of Riding Sharing Services

网络舆论对政策议程的影响是一个重要议题,已有文献大都将网络舆论视为外生给定因素探讨其对政策议程的影响,缺乏对网络舆论的动态特性及其影响效应的足够关注。本文对金登多源流理论原型进行修正,结合现实观察和理论推演,构建一个"两阶段多源流"理论框架,刻画以回应策略和行为为调节变量的多源流耦合程度对公共政策形成的影响。基于这一理论框架,围绕滴滴顺风车安全事件对顺风车安全管理政策进行分析,结果表明:政策议程是由问题触发、舆论驱动的,具有明显的阶段性;由于缺乏实质性回应,紧挨着的两起危机事件引发网络舆论的升级,促使问题源流、政治源流与政策源流从轻度耦合演变为高度耦合,进而促使"问题之窗"与"政治之窗"相继开启,最终导致顺风车安全管理政策由宽松到严苛的巨大转变。本文新构建的理论框架对于转型国家的议程设置和政策形成,特别是公共舆论与政策之间的关系方面具有更强的解释力。本文结论在网络舆论引导和民意的实质性回应方面具有明显的政策含义。

The objective of this paper is to illustrate and examinehow online public opinions affect the policy agenda setting.A"two-stage multiple streams"framework based on John W.Kingdon’s multiple streams theory was constructed.The framework was illustrated by an exploratory case study,involving the formation and change of Comprehensive Safety Inspections Policy of Riding Sharing Services during the year 2008.The theoretical framework shows that the policy window is dominantly opened by politics rather than problems in a transitional country like China.The different couplingintensity of three streams,mediated by the responsiveness of related parties,can produce different policy outcome.The analysis of the case of the two crises of DidiChuxingRiding Sharing in 2018 positively supports the framework.The resultsreveal that the pushing effects of online public opinion on policy agenda setting were triggered by problems and motived by public opinions with an outstanding two-stage feature,and that the two consequent crises made the escalation of online public opinions,enabling the loosely coupling of the problem streams,the politics streams and policy streams to turn into tightly coupling,which in turn opened the problem window and the politics window respectively,thus ultimately resulting in the great transformation of regulation policy from loose to extremely tight.The key limitation of the study is that it reliesmainly onpublicly available sources of data,thus failing to open the black box of the decision and the interaction process of related parties.The proposed theoretical framework can provide a guideline for the government and enterprises to substantially and properlyrespond to the online opinions.Most of existent literatures viewed online public opinions as a static external factor,with a lack of attention of their dynamics and corresponding effects.This study captures the dynamics and the effects of different intensity of public opinions on the coupling of multiple streams and thus the formation of public policy.The"two-stage multiple streams"framework provides a more powerful insight into the agenda setting process and policy formation,as well as the relationships between online public opinions and policy in a transitional country.