顺势而动 为所当为——2023—2025年宏观经济展望

Follow the Trend and Do What It Needs——Macroeconomic Outlook for 2023-2025

回首2022,在需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力下,我国经济表现出增速换挡、动能偏弱、通胀结构性分化、房地产市场向存量优化过渡、利率中枢下行等转折性变化。当前,国际形势复杂严峻,逆全球化重新抬头,地缘政治风险加剧,全球经济衰退风险上升,国内发展面临疫情扩散和变异风险、房地产支撑能力走弱以及政策错位、产业链重构等诸多挑战和压力。受此影响,短期经济运行承压,经济步入弱企稳阶段。中期,在稳增长政策和国内大循环战略推动下,中国开启高质量发展新阶段,经济逐步回归潜在增速。站在新的历史起点,中国经济发展需要顺势而动,为所当为!

Looking back on 2022,under the triple pressure of demand contraction,supply shock and weakening expectations,China’s economy has shown a shift in growth,weak momentum,structural differentiation of inflation,the transition of the real estate market to stock,and the downward trend of interest rate.At present,the international situation is complex and severe,with the resurgence of anti-globalization,the intensification of geopolitical risks,and the rise of the risk of global economic recession.Domestic development faces many challenges and pressures,such as the risk of epidemic spread and mutation,the weakening of real estate support capacity,policy dislocation,and the restructuring of industrial chain.Affected by this,the short-term economic operation is under pressure,and the economy has entered a weak and stable stage.In the medium term,driven by the policy of stabilizing growth and the domestic macro-cycle strategy,China has opened a new stage of high-quality development,and the economy has gradually returned to potential growth.Standing at a new historical starting point,China’s economic development needs to follow the trend and do what it needs!