基于AHP-BP神经网络的EPC项目风险评价应用

Application of Risk Assessment of EPC Project Based on AHP-BP Neural Network

为探究EPC项目风险等级,本文从AHP,BP神经网络的特点出发,结合相关文献及EPC项目风险因素分析,筛选出7个一级指标和30个二级指标,以此建立EPC项目风险评价指标体系,并基于AHPBP神经网络模型,对20个EPC项目数据进行模拟训练,以某国际文体综合基地建设项目为例,从承包方的角度评估分析EPC项目的风险等级,模拟结果为低风险等级,重点风险因素为资金短缺和管理经验缺乏。

In order to explore the risk level of the EPC project,this article starts from the characteristics of AHP and BP neural networks,combined with relevant literature and EPC project risk factors to analyze,and screen out 7 first-level indicators 30 second-level indicators to establish an EPC project risk evaluation indicator system.Based on the AHP-BP neural network model,the data of 20 EPC projects is simulated training.Taking an international and sports comprehensive base construction project as an example,the risk level of the EPC project is evaluated from the perspective of the contractor.The simulation results are low risk levels.The key risk factors are:shortage of funds and lack of management experience.