从“两种生产”理论看生育意愿低迷的经济社会根源

On the Economic and Social Causes of Low Fertility Intention from the Perspective of “Two Kinds of Production” Theory

我国人口出生率持续下滑正在引起各方关注,表面是生育意愿低迷,背后隐藏着深刻的经济社会根源。“两种生产”理论为人口发展和政策制定提供了深厚的理论依据。科技发展让整个社会财富的增长呈现几何级数的增长,从而打破马尔萨斯“人口过剩的神话”。“两种生产”相互依存推动经济社会不断发展,儿童对于家庭的价值发生重大转变,女性生育成本随教育程度提高,养育孩子显著增加家庭支出,从而导致生育对家庭的价值发生深刻转变。人口再生产的投资和收益主体发生错位,投资主体主要是家庭,而收益主体主要是社会,从而导致家庭生育意愿降低。在制定人口长期发展战略,优化生育政策时,必须充分考虑生育意愿低迷背后隐藏的深层经济社会根源。

The continuous decline of China’s birth rate is attracting the attention of all parties.On the surface,it is the low fertility intention,but behind it lies the profound economic and social roots.The theory of“two kinds of production”provides a profound theoretical basis for population development and policy-making.The development of science and technology makes the growth of wealth of the whole society increase in geometric progression,thus breaking the Malthusian“myth of overpopulation”.The interdependence of“two kinds of production”promotes the continuous development of economy and society,and the value of children to the family has undergone a significant change.With the improvement of women’s education level,the cost of raising children significantly increases the family expenditure,which leads to a profound change in the value of childbearing to the family.The main body of investment and income of population reproduction is misplaced.The main body of investment is family,while the main body of income is society,which leads to the decrease of family fertility intention.In formulating the long-term population development strategy and optimizing the fertility policy,we must fully consider the deep economic and social roots behind the low fertility intention.