房价波动对制造型企业投资行为的差异化影响——市场条件和企业所有权视角

The Differentiated Impact of Housing Price Fluctuation on Investment Behavior of Manufacturing Enterprises——Based on the Perspective of Market Conditionsand Enterprise Ownership

基于2002~2017年30个省、自治区和直辖市的沪深A股制造业上市公司的面板数据,分析了金融市场和住房市场在房价波动对制造型企业投资行为影响中的门槛效应,根据已识别出的门槛值进行分组回归,比较了不同金融市场和住房市场条件组合下房价波动对制造型企业投资行为的影响;分析了房价波动对不同所有权性质的制造型企业投资行为的影响。研究发现,房价上涨对制造型企业主营业务投资的挤出效应显著;随着金融市场发展程度的提高,房价上涨带来的挤出效应呈现先增加后降低的趋势;住房市场越不健康,房价上涨对制造型企业主营业务投资的挤出效应越强。金融市场发展水平在房价上涨对制造型企业主营业务投资挤出效应中的抑制作用需建立在住房市场健康的条件之上。房价波动更容易影响非国有制造型企业的投资策略。"央企退出房地产业"政策颁布后,效果略有成效,但并未达到预期的理想水平。最后,提出了促进住房市场健康发展和完善金融市场体系的政策建议。

By using the panel data of A-Stock manufacturing listed companies in Shanghai&Shenzhen of 30 provinces from 2002 to 2017,this paper analyzes the threshold effect of financial market and housing market on the impact of housing price fluctuation on the investment behavior of manufacturing enterprises,and performs group regression based on the recognized threshold value,comparing the impact of housing price fluctuation on manufacturing enterprise investment behavior under different financial markets.The impact of housing price fluctuations on the investment behavior of manufacturing companies with different ownership characteristics.The research finds that the"collateral effect"of rising house prices on the manufacturing firm’s investment behavior is significant.With the improvement of the development of regional financial markets,the"crowding-out effect"brought by high housing prices will increase first and then decrease.The unhealthier the housing market,the stronger the crowding-out effect of rising house prices on the main business of manufacturing companies.The level of development of the financial market in the suppression effect of the rise in housing prices on the investment in the main business of manufacturing enterprises needs to be based on the healthy conditions of the housing market.Housing price fluctuations are more likely to affect the investment strategies of non-state-owned manufacturing enterprises.After the promulgation of the policy of"central enterprise exiting the real estate industry",the effect was slightly effective,but it does not reach the expected ideal level.Finally,this paper puts forward policy recommendations to promote the healthy development of the housing market and improve the financial market system.