新地缘经济环境下中国的东南亚经济外交方略与应对——基于系统论的分析

China’s Economic Diplomacy Towards Southeast Asia in the New Geo-economic Environment——Strategies and Responses Based on System Theory

在大国战略竞争加剧的大背景下,东南亚的地缘经济环境也更加复杂多变:域外大国地区经济博弈持续深化,域内国家“选边站”压力不断增大;“印太经济框架”出炉,地区经济秩序竞争日趋激烈;区域内经济发展不平衡,投资风险加剧。系统论视角下的中国东南亚经济外交,需要理性审视该地区地缘战略环境的变化以适时调整经济外交战略整体框架,密切跟踪外交决策实施效果以合理应对“话语陷阱”,进而实现经济外交决策的最优化。具体而言,中国东南亚经济外交可以“和合文化”指引地区新经济秩序构建,反对经济“阵营化”;以“一带一路”和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》为核心加大普惠性区域经济合作力度,应对“印太经济框架”;引领数字经济外交实践,缩小数字鸿沟,改善东南亚国家发展不平衡状况。

Against the background of intensified strategic competition among major powers,the geo-economic environment in Southeast Asia becomes more complicated and volatile:the regional economic game among extra-territorial big powers has continued to deepen,and the pressure on countries in the region to“choose sides”has been increasing;the“Indo-Pacific Economic Framework”has been released,and the competition in the regional economic order is becoming increasingly fierce;unbalanced economic development in the region has aggravated investment risks.From the perspective of system theory,China’s Southeast Asian economic diplomacy needs to rationally examine the changes of the geostrategic environment of the region,adjust the overall strategy framework in a timely manner,closely observe the effectiveness of the implementation of economic diplomacy decisions,and cope with“discourse traps”to achieve the optimization of decision-making.Specifically,China’s Southeast Asian economic diplomacy can guide the construction of the regional economic order with“harmonious culture”while opposing“alignment”,enhance inclusive regional economic cooperation centered on the Belt and Road and RCEP in response to the“Indo-Pacific Economic Framework”,and lead the practice of digital economy diplomacy to narrow the digital divide and improve the uneven development of Southeast Asian countries.