弱势国家的水权逆转——埃塞俄比亚尼罗河水外交的历史透视与现状解析

Water Rights Reversal of Thin State:History and Current Situation of Ethiopian Nile Water Diplomacy

尼罗河水权长期被埃及等下游国家主导。埃塞俄比亚境内虽然提供了绝大部分尼罗河水流量,但没有能力进行发电、灌溉等开发。20世纪90年代以前,埃塞俄比亚主要通过单边主义的对抗方式伸张其水权,效果有限且令自身陷入被动境地。20世纪90年代以来埃塞俄比亚通过对话探索多边合作开发尼罗河水资源,并于1999年正式加入尼罗河流域倡议组织。2011年以前,埃塞俄比亚的尼罗河水外交基本上是依托尼罗河流域倡议组织的相关机制展开的。由于该机制低效且发展不均衡,2011年以来埃塞俄比亚以复兴大坝为依托创立了符合埃塞俄比亚实际情况,且能提供多边协商、多目标磋商、利益置换和第三方参与的兼容开放的水外交合作机制。经过长期探索,埃塞俄比亚通过水外交基本实现了对尼罗河水资源的自主开发权,有效维护了本国的发展权益,完成了水权弱势地位的成功逆转。不过在未来,尼罗河流域的水资源主导权从下游国家向上游国家的转移趋势为流域内国家可持续合作提出了新挑战。

The water rights of the Nile River have long been controlled by downstream states such as Egypt and Sudan.Although Ethiopia provides most of the Nile water runoff,it has not no capacity for the Nile’s power generation,irrigation and other development.Before the1990s,Ethiopia mainly upheld its water rights through unilateral confrontation,but its effects which were limited made Ethiopia fall into an adverse situation.Since the1990s,Ethiopia has explored the development of the Nile water resources in a multilateral way through dialogue.In1999,it officially joined the Nile Basin Initiative(NBI).Before2011,the Ethiopian Nile water diplomacy was basically based on the relevant mechanisms of NBI.Due to the inefficiency and imbalance of NBI,Ethiopia tried to create an open and compatible cooperation mechanisms of water diplomacy based on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD)after2011,which is in line with Ethiopia’s actual situation.New mechanisms can provide multilateral consultation,multiobjective bargaining,benefit replacement,and third-party participation.Ethiopia has basically mastered its dominance over water diplomacy,effectively safeguarded its rights and interests of development,thus achieving a successful reversal of the disadvantaged position of water rights.In the future,the changing trend that water resources dominance transfers from downstream states to upstream states in the Nile River Basin will challenge the sustainable cooperation of relevant states.