大变局时代的美国国家安全战略:传统与变革的两难困局

US National Security Strategy in the Era of Momentous Changes:Dilemma between Tradition and Change

当今世界已经进入“百年大变局”和新的“动荡变革”时期。这个大变局的核心是力量格局、思想观念与制度规范的变化,实质是以新兴大国为代表的新兴市场国家和“全球南方”的崛起,使传统的“中心—外围”结构和美西方的全球主导地位首次面临可能被打破的前景。近十余年来,美国国家安全战略在战略目标、战略手段、全球战略布局、地区关注重点以及主要竞争对手等维度均出现许多重要调整。国内外主客观条件变化是美国不断进行战略调整的基本动因。其中,客观条件包括国际力量结构变迁、美国社会政治极化以及政治领导人综合素质整体衰颓,主观因素则涉及历届政府在国家利益界定、安全威胁认知以及战略手段选择等方面的差异。然而,美国国家安全战略在霸权护持的根本目标、冲突对抗的战略思维、崇力尚武的手段偏好等许多关键问题上仍呈现显著的内在连续性。受制于诸多根深蒂固的安全观念与战略传统,美国的战略调整很难真正与时俱进,在全球、地区与国家等层面经常陷入收缩与扩张、安全与发展、传统与变革的两难困局。

The world today has entered a new period of“Turbulence and Transformation”amidst the“Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”.The core of this great change is the change in power dynamics,ideology and institutional norms,and the essence is the rise of emerging market countries and the"global South",represented by the emerging powers,so that for the first time the traditional"Core-Periphery"structure and the global dominance of the United States and the West are facing the prospect of possible disruption.Over the past decade or so,the US security strategy has seen many important adjustments in such dimensions as strategic objectives,strategic means,global strategic layout,regional focus and major competitors.The changing subjective and objective conditions both domestically and internationally are the fundamental driving forces behind the continuous strategic adjustments made by the United States.The objective conditions include changes in the international power structure,the socio-political polarisation of the United States and the overall decline in the overall quality of political leaders,while the subjective factors involve the differences between successive administrations in terms of the definition of national interests,the perception of security threats and the choice of strategic means.However,the US security strategy still has notable internal continuity in many key issues such as the fundamental goal of upholding hegemony,strategic thinking of conflict and confrontation and preference for military means.Due to many deep-rooted security concepts and strategic traditions,it is difficult for the United States to truly keep up with the times in its strategic adjustments.Rather,it is often caught in a dilemma of contraction and expansion,security and development and tradition and change at the global,regional and national levels.