战略审慎:汉斯·摩根索权力政治思想析论

Strategic Prudence:An Analysis of Hans Morgenthau’s Theory of Power Politics

自摩根索以来的现实主义诸多理论作品,容易被误解为鼓励国家扩张权力与发动战争,甚至将现实主义等同于大国政治悲剧的根源。实际上,现实主义理论流派中,无论是偏好权力平衡、威胁平衡还是利益平衡的学者,抑或进攻性现实主义与防御性现实主义的观点,都在不同程度上将战略审慎作为权力政治的重要美德。通过梳理现实主义有关战略审慎的思想传统,探讨战略理性的有限性,以及理性与非理性的不确定性与复杂性在权力政治中的广泛存在,揭示出权力欲是摩根索审慎思想的逻辑起点。继而阐释摩根索战略审慎的理论精要,包括传统主义的分析路径、均势理念的强化、战略目标与战略手段的动态平衡、权力与道德的兼顾、以权力界定利益、塑造威胁认知、避免威胁预期扩大化等,剖析摩根索在科学行为主义与传统主义间寻求一种折中的分析路径,探究摩根索思想对其他国际关系理论学说的影响。

Many theoretical works on realism following Morgenthau are easily misunderstood as encouraging countries to expand their power and wage war,and even equate realism with the root of political tragedy in big countries.In fact,in schools of realist theories,scholars who prefer power balance,threat balance or interest balance,as well as offensive realism and defensive realism,regard strategic prudence as an important virtue of power politics to varying degrees.By combing the realist traditional thought of strategic prudence,this paper explores the finite nature of strategic rationality and the widespread uncertainty and complexity of rationality and irrationality in power politics,and reveals that the desire for power is the logical starting point of Morgenthau’s prudence thought.Then it explains the essence of Morgenthau’s strategic prudence theory,including traditionalism analysis path,strengthening the idea of balance of power,dynamic balance between strategic objectives and strategic means,taking into account power and morality,defining interests by power,shaping threat perception,and avoiding the expansion of threat expectation.It analyzes Morgenthau’s analysis path in pursuit of a compromise between scientific behaviorism and traditionalism,and explores the influence of Morgenthau’s thought on other theories of international relations.