国家安全要素的互动:经贸联系对双边外交立场的影响——基于联合国大会投票数据的研究

The Interplay of National Security Elements:The Influence of Trade Relations on Diplomatic Stances——A Study Based on UNGA Voting Data

基于实证数据,对中美两国与其他国家双边立场的距离和经贸相关变量进行回归分析。对有关中国外交立场的距离和经贸相关变量作出进一步处理并进行实证检验。研究表明:第一,不论是中国还是美国,各国对其贸易依赖度越高,双边外交立场距离越近;第二,对于发达国家,各国对中国贸易依赖度越高,双边外交立场距离越近,而对于发展中国家,各国对中国贸易依赖度同其与中国的双边外交立场距离不存在显著关系;第三,不论是发达国家还是发展中国家,各国对中国投资依赖度越高,双边外交立场距离越近。通过实证检验,对未来中国对外经贸政策提出建议:第一,中国应继续提高同各国的经贸联系,加强本国在世界经贸体系和全球供应链的地位,从而增强与其他国家的外交联系;第二,面对不同经济水平的国家,中国在对外交往过程中应制定与该国实际情况相符的政策,从而更好地促进双边关系,保障中国的国家安全。

This paper uses empirical data to compare gaps in diplomatic stances between China/the U.S.and other countries,examine trade-related variables,and conduct a regression analysis.It then probes into China’s case and carries out an empirical analysis.The regression analysis shows that:1.For any country,the greater its trade dependence on China or the U.S.,the closer their bilateral diplomatic stances;2.For a developed country,the greater its trade dependence on China,the closer their bilateral diplomatic stances,while for a developing country,its trade dependence on China has no obvious bearing on the divergence in their bilateral diplomatic stances;and 3.For both a developed country and a developing country,the greater its investment dependence on China,the closer their diplomatic stances.The empirical analysis puts forward the following suggestions for China’s economic and trade policies in the future:1.China should continue pursuing closer economic and trade relations with other countries and a stronger position in the international trade system and global supply chains,so as to boost diplomatic ties with them;2.China should consider the economic realities of specific countries and tailor its foreign policies accordingly,so as to improve relations with them and ensure its own security.