基于货币和劳动力转移视角的农产品价格超调研究

On the agricultural price overshooting from perspective of money supply and labor migration

将劳动力转移与经济增长之间的紧密关系引入农产品价格超调理论框架中,构建出能够容纳更多经济体特征的广义农产品超调理论模型.这个模型包含两个阶段:第一阶段是"超调转折点"之前的阶段,即以剩余劳动力转移为核心特征的发展阶段;第二阶段是"超调转折点"之后的阶段,即劳动力转移完成后的一元经济阶段.在第一阶段,劳动力转移和经济发展不断推进,劳动力转移和货币这两个因素共同引起农产品价格的超调,货币供给增加或者劳动力转移速度加快时,农产品价格上涨幅度会加快.在第二阶段,农产品价格超调则主要由货币因素主导,接近于经典农产品价格超调模型所描述的情形.为验证广义农产品价格超调理论相应假说,基于已经完成劳动力转移的日本数据进行实证研究.实证检验的结果验证了所提出的农产品价格超调模型的相应假说.

This paper introduces the close relationship between labor migration and economic growth into the theoretical framework of agricultural price overshooting,and constructs a generalized agricultural price overshooting theoretical model that can accommodate more economic characteristics.The model consists of two stages:the first stage is the stage before the"overshooting turning point",which is the development stage with the labor migration as the core feature;the second stage is the stage after the"overshooting turning point",that is.the unitary economic stage after the labor migration.In the first stage,labor migration and economic development are continuously promoted.Labor migration and money supply together cause the agricultural price overshooting.When the money supply increases or the labor migration speeds up,the rise of agricultural product prices will accelerate.In the second stage,the overshooting of agricultural product prices is mainly dominated by monetary factors,which is close to the situation described in the classic agricultural product price overshooting model.In order to verify the corresponding hypothesis of generalized agricultural price overshooting theory,this paper conducts empirical research based on the data of Japan which has completed labor transfer respectively.The result of empirical test verifies the corresponding hypothesis of the generalized agricultural price overshooting model put forward in this paper.