基于PSR-CGPM的区域"水资源-能源-粮食"系统安全评价研究

Safety evaluation of regional Water-Energy-Food system based on Pressure-State-Response model

资源安全问题已成为制约我国经济可持续发展的瓶颈.本文分析了水资源、能源和粮食复杂系统相互作用的机理及耦合关系,基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型建立了区域水资源-能源-粮食(WEF)系统安全评价指标体系;构建了基于熵权法和通用灰色预测模型(CGPM)的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全综合评价及预测模型.以我国典型区域内蒙古为例,对其2007-2016年的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全进行综合评价并对未来5年的水资源-能源-粮食系统安全水平进行预测.结果表明:内蒙古2007-2016年WEF系统安全水平从2007-2009年较为稳定,2009-2010年明显下滑,之后安全水平呈平稳上升趋势;对内蒙古WEF系统安全综合指数进行预测,结果显示,2017-2021内蒙古WEF系统安全水平持续改善.最后,结合内蒙古实际,提出了加强水资源-能源-粮食管理的政策建议.

The Problem of resource safety has become a bottleneck that restricts the sustainable develoPment of China's economy.This PaPer constructed water-energy-food system safety evaluation indices according to Pressure-State-ResPonse(PSR)method based on the understanding of the mutual restriction and couPling relationshiP of water,energy and food;then established the comPrehensive evaluation model of water-energy-food system based on entroPy weight and the general gray Predict model(CGPM).Next,this PaPer took Inner Mongolia of China as an examPle and comPrehensively evaluated water-energy-food system safety in Inner Mongolia from 2007 to 2016.And the safeties of Inner Mongolia's water-energy-food system were Predicted in the next five years.The results show that the water-energyfood system safety of Inner Mongolia were relatively stable from 2007 to 2009,declined sharPly from 2009 to 2010,and then showed a steady uPward trend.After Predicting the comPrehensive index of water-energy-food safety in Inner Mongolia,the results show that the safety of water-energy-food system in Inner Mongolia is continuously imProved from 2017 to 2021.Finally,combined with the reality of Inner Mongolia,the recommendations for strengthening waterenergy-food management were Put forward.