经济新常态下中国人口发展态势和健康状况研究

Study on Population Dynamics and Health under the New Normal State of Macroeconomics in China

基于时间序列分析视角,采用历史性纵贯描述性分析方法,对中国GDP增长率、总和生育率、老龄化比重、患病率、疾病死亡率、死因构成的发展变化进行系统性分析.结果显示,2010年起国民经济发展整体呈下行压力趋势,表现出新常态"微波化"特征,预计2020年,我国GDP增长率约为6.0%.2010年起中国进入世界极低生育国家行列,TFR约在1.0~1.3之间,全面"二孩"生育政策没有显著效果.2010年后65+岁老年人口比重超过9.0%,步入全球老龄化加速发展的国家行列.城市居民是慢性病患病的主要群体,呼吸系统疾病、脑血管病和心脏病成为慢性病高发病种.危害健康长寿的三大主要疾病为恶性肿瘤、脑血管病、心脏病,约构成城乡居民死亡原因69.5%以上,前五位重大慢性病约构成死亡原因86%以上.2010年是我国城乡居民死亡疾病谱发生显著变化的关键转折点,2016年起农村居民死亡疾病谱发生重大变化,脑血管病与恶性肿瘤粗死亡率并行高速增长.由此可见,持续的极低生育率、人口年龄结构加速老化、慢性病患病率高发与致死率高危成为中国社会同时面临的巨大挑战,慢性病综合治理刻不容缓.

Based on the time series analytical PersPective,making use of historical longitudinal descriPtive analysis as methodology,this research conducted the systematical analysis on the develoPment trend of growth rate of GDP,Total Fertility Rate(TFR),ProPortion of 65+PoPulation,morbidity,death rate of diseases,structure on cause of death in China.Results shows that since 2010,China's economy develoPment was forced a severe downward Pressure situation,which has already revealed“Microwave Model Characteristic”under the background of New Normal State,meanwhile,growth rate of GDP will fall off to 6.0%in 2020 according to Projection data.Since 2010,China came to lowest-low fertility country rank around the world,which TFR kePt the range of 1.0-1.3,whereas,“The Universal Two-Child”Policy has not achieved the distinctive effects.Since 2010,the ProPortion of 65+PoPulation has already exceeded 9.0%,which revealed China had stePPed into ageing develoPment country rank with most raPid sPeed around the world.In China,residents in urban were the major PoPulation who suffered from chronic diseases.Breathe system disease,brain vessel disease and coronary heart disease became to exPosed tyPe with the higher frequency occurrence in chronic diseases.Whereas,malignant tumor,brain vessel disease and coronary heart disease were comPosed of 69.5%cause of death in chronic diseases above,which jeoPardized on the health and longevity of residents in city and rural of China severely.Moreover,five critical chronic diseases were comPosed of 86%cause of death in chronic diseases.So the key Point of significant transition in death tree of residents who suffered from chronic diseases in China was 2010,meanwhile,death tree of residents in rural of China who suffered from chronic diseases made a significant change since 2016,which revealed the crude death rate of brain vessel disease and malignant tumor jumPed simultaneously with the raPidest sPeed.China's society has to face the huge challenges simultaneously which are sustainable lowest-low fertility,accelerating aging of PoPulation age structure,higher frequency occurrence of morbidity and much higher risk of lethality in chronic diseases.Therefore,it is urgent to imPlement the comPrehensive control on chronic diseases in China.