从"模仿"到"自主创新":中国技术进步的拐点分析

From"Imitation"to"Indigenous Innovation":Analysis of the Inflection Point in China's Technological Advancement

"以市场换技术"的模仿式技术进步模式虽然促使我国经济水平获得了长足的进步,但远未实现技术赶超发达国家的预期目标,并有可能成为未来经济持续增长的主要障碍.我们从精简的两国技术扩散模型中推导出了技术进步跃升条件的数理表达式.数据分析结果表明,我国从2009年左右开始,正经历着从"以模仿为主"到"以自主创新为主"战略转换拐点的政策窗口期.我们通过中美两国技术水平的变化趋势及我国科技创新投入及产出情况的分析进一步佐证了这一结论.最后针对这一判断给出了相应的政策建议.

China's rapid economic growth may be partly due to the“market-for-technology”model of imitative technological advancement.However,China is far from achieving the de-sired goal of technological catch-up with developed countries.Therefore,the existing model is likely to become a major obstacle to China’s future economic growth.Based on asimplified model of technology diffusion between two countries,we derive amathematical expression of the“leapfrog”conditions necessary for technological advancement.Data analysis results show that China has been experiencing a policy window period from“imitation oriented”to“indigenous innovation oriented”since around 2009.We further support this conclusion through ananalysis of the changing trend of technological levels in China and the United States,as well as a comparison of the input and output of scientific and technological innovation in China.Finally,coresponding policy recommendations are given.