不确定条件下多目标流域产业结构优化模型及其应用

Multi-objective Watershed Industrial Structure Optimization Model and Its Application under Uncertainty

本文从数学模型角度开发了一个区间模糊多目标规划模型用于流域产业结构定量优化。区间模糊多目标规划模型耦合了区间线性规划模型、模糊弹性规划模型和多目标规划模型,相比于传统的产业结构优化模型,此模型能够反映产业系统中的两种不确定性(区间不确定性和模糊不确定性)、系统性、动态性和多目标性,从而提高了结果的可靠性。另外,模型能定量反映产业结构的变化与环境约束、社会条件以及经济发展之间的关系。本文将所开发的流域产业结构优化模型应用于山东省南四湖流域,结果表明:所开发的模型能有效为产业决策者提供最优产业结构模式,并为当地环境排放和社会经济发展提供了有效的建议。

This paper developed an interval fuzzy multi-objective programming model for quantitative optimizing the watershed industrial structure with the help of the mathematical model.The fuzzy multi-objective programming model couple interval linear programming model,the fuzzy flexible programming model and multi-objective programming model,compared with the traditional industrial structure optimization model,this model could reflect two kinds of uncertainty(interval uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty),systematic,dynamic and multi-objective of the industry system,so as to improve the reliability of the results.In addition,the model could quantitatively reflect the relationship among the changes of industrial structure and environmental constraints,social conditions,and economic development.This paper applied the developed basin industrial structure optimization model to Shandong Nansihu watershed,results showed that:the developed model could effectively provide the optimal industrial structure model for industrial policy makers,and provide effective suggestions to local environment emissions and social economy development.