农户对农业保险选择行为及影响因素研究——基于陕西省洛川县356户农民的调查数据

Study on Farmers'Choice of Agricultural Insurance and Its Influencing Factors——Based on the survey data of 356 farmers in Luochuan County,Shaanxi Province

本文通过对陕西省洛川县农户的实地调研,综合使用AHP层次分析法和信息熵赋权法对指标进行赋权,使用logistic回归模型对农户投保行为选择意愿及影响因素进行分析,并使用模型进行预测和准确率比对,同时对比了两种回归模型的准确率,最终得出:社会关系对农户投保具有负影响、纯收入由于补贴等因素对农户农业保险开支影响较小等一系列结论,并从微观和宏观角度提出了继续加强财政扶持、强制立法、提高广义机械化率等政策建议.

This paper analyzes the field survey data of farmers in Luochuan County,Shaanxi Province,comprehensively uses AHP and information entropy weighting method to weight the indicators,uses logistic regression model to analyze farmers'willingness to choose insurance behavior and its influencing factors,and uses the model to predict and compare the accuracy,and compares the accuracy of the two regression models,Finally,a series of conclusions are drawn,such as the negative impact of social relations on Farmers'insurance,the less impact of net income on Farmers'agricultural insurance expenditure due to subsidies,and so on.From the micro and macro perspective,some policy suggestions are put forward,such as continuing to strengthen financial support,compulsory legislation,and improving the generalized mechanization rate.