地下空间突变失稳预测模型探讨

Study on Prediction Model of Mutation Instability in Underground Space

为预测地下空间突变失稳险情,将突变理论与地下空间相结合,利用现有大数据归纳统计分析,根据各指标的分级关系进行指标排序并选择模型建立预测分析系统,进行指标评价分析。介绍了现有突变模型标准形式、突变级数法的归一化处理公式等,并以地铁项目为例分析设计、施工、管理、地质和环境因素的隧道风险指标体系,采用专家打分制度对底层指标进行量化,对系统的总突变隶属度值进行评价。

In combination with the mutation theory and the underground space,the instability risk about the sudden change of underground space is predicted based on the existing big data statistical analysis.According to the grading relationship of each index t the index is sorted and the model is selected to establish the prediction and analysis system for index evaluation and analysis.This paper introduced the standard form of the existing mutation model as well as the normalization formula of mutation series method,and took the subway project as an example to analyze the risk index system of tunnel with design,construction,management,geological and environmental factors,used the expert scoring system to quantify the underlying indicators,and evaluated the total mutation membership value of the system.