聚碳酸酯市场供需现状与发展趋势

Supply and demand status and development trend of polycarbonate markets

中国已成为全球最大的聚碳酸酯生产国和消费国.2018年中国聚碳酸酯产能118×104 t/a,表观消费量180.7×104 t,自给率仅36.1%.伴随新建产能的陆续投产,预计到2025年,中国聚碳酸酯产能将超过520×104 t/a,较目前增加4倍,消费量为300×104~330×104 t,产能增长大幅超过需求增长.加上每年超过百万吨的可供进口资源以及聚碳酸酯需求增速放缓等因素,国内聚碳酸酯市场将呈现国产低端产品过剩、高端产品依赖进口的供应格局,低端市场竞争将更加激烈.为促进中国聚碳酸酯产业的健康可持续发展,除了加强国家层面、地方政府层面的宏观指导,行业组织的产能预警外,更应加大科研投入,增强自主研发能力.一方面要不断加强非光气法自主成套技术的完善和创新.另一方面在提高产品质量的同时,以功能化和专用化产品开发为重点.

China has become the world’s largest producer and consumer of polycarbonate.In 2018,China’s polycarbonate capacity was 118×104 t/a,and apparent consumption was 180.7×104 t,but the self-sufficiency rate was only 36.1%.With the continuous production of new capacity,it is estimated that by 2025,China’s polycarbonate capacity will exceed 520×104 t/a,which is four times higher than the current level,and the consumption is 300×104~330×104 t.The capacity growth has greatly exceeded demand growth.Coupled with more than one million tons of available resources per year from import and a slowdown in demand for polycarbonate,the domestic polycarbonate market will show a supply pattern of domestic low-end products surplus and high-end products relying on imports.The competition of the low-end market will be fiercer.So,in order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of China’s polycarbonate industry,in addition to strengthening the macro guidance at the national level and local government level,and the production organization’s capacity warning,it is necessary to increase investment in scientific research and enhance independent research and development capabilities.On the one hand,we must continuously strengthen the improvement and innovation of the non-phosgene gas independent technology.On the other hand,while improving product quality,it focuses on developing functional and specialized products.