旅游发展对产业结构升级的影响及门槛效应——以长三角41个城市为例

Influences and Threshold Effects of Tourism Development on Industrial Structure Upgrading——Case Study of 41 Cities in the Yangtze River Delta

旅游业作为新兴经济体,其发展与产业结构之间的关系成为推动经济增长的核心要素.本研究基于长三角地区2000-2017年的面板数据,利用ArcGIS10.4软件、采用Hansen面板门槛模型,检验旅游发展与产业结构升级之间的关系.研究结果表明:①旅游发展与产业结构之间并非呈现线性关系,而是存在显著的门槛效应;②旅游发展以0.0271和0.0599为门槛变量,对产业结构的影响效果表现为“急剧抑制—缓慢阻碍—平缓促进”的“U”结构模式;③经济发展水平、信息化水平、市场化程度和人力资源能够显著促进产业结构升级,而外商投资与政府干预对产业结构升级产生负向作用;④目前,长三角各城市均已跨越第二门槛值,旅游发展对产业结构升级的推动作用逐渐凸显.

The relationship between the development and industrial structure of tourism industry,as an emerging economy,has become a core factor promoting economic growth.Based on the panel data of 2000 to 2017,and by using ArcGIS10.4 software and Hansen panel threshold model,this paper tests the relationship between tourism development and industrial structure upgrading.The research findings prove that:(1)between the tourism development and industrial structure,there is not a linear relationship,but an obvious threshold effect;(2)tourism development takes 0.0271 and 0.0599 as threshold variables,and its influences and effects on industrial structure are expressed as the"U"structure model of"rapid inhibition-slow obstructiongentle promotion";(3)economic development level,informatization level,marketization degree,and human resources can remarkably promote industrial structure upgrading,while foreign investment and government intervention have negative effects on industrial structure upgrading;(4)at present,each city in the Yangtze River Delta has crossed the second threshold value,and tourism development has gradually shown its effects on promoting industrial structure upgrading.