基于浮动车的高速公路行程时间短时预测方法研究

Research on Short-term Travel Time Prediction Method of Expressway Based on Floating Car

为准确预测高速公路路段行程时间,提出基于浮动车GPS数据的高速公路行程时间的短时预测方法.首先,基于浮动车获取高速公路行程时间的测试数据和训练数据;其次,采用KNN算法评估不同交通状况之间的相似度,将训练数据中与拟预测时间段交通状况最接近的浮动车行程时间作为预测行程时间;最后,采用重庆市机场路的浮动车数据进行方法有效性验证.结果表明,该方法具有直观、简单、预测精度高等优势,可应用于预测高速公路行程时间,在高速公路入口处提供实时的行程时间交通诱导信息,提高驾驶员出行前的路径选择效率.

In order to accurately predict the travel time of the expressway section,a short-time prediction method of the travel time of the expressway based on the floating vehicle GPS data is proposed.Firstly,test data and training data of expressway travel time are obtained based on the floating car method.Secondly,KNN algorithm is used to evaluate the similarity between different traffic conditions,and the predicted travel time is determined by the nearest floating cars’average travel time.Finally,the floating car data of airport road in Chongqing is used to verify the validity of the method.The results show that this method is intuitive,simple and accurate,and can be applied to predict the travel time of expressway,which is beneficial to provide real-time travel time for the traffic guidance information at the entrance of the expressway,and improve the efficiency of drivers’route selection before travel.